[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132323
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
723 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 13/2100 UTC, the center of Hurricane Jose is near 25.3N 65.9W,
moving S at 3 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988
mb. The maximum sustained winds remain 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is present from
20N-27N between 60W-69W. Jose is expected to make a slow
clockwise loop during the next couple of days, moving west-
northwestward by late Thursday. Please read the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave over the east Atlantic with axis extending from
18N28W to a 1010 mb low near 08N29W to 03N29W, moving west at around
15-20 kt. This wave is well-defined in the 700 mb model winds and
the Senegal rawindsonde report. TPW satellite imagery indicates
the wave is embedded in a large area of deep-layer moisture.
Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-13N between 24W-32W.

A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean with axis extending
from 20N68W to 08N69W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. This wave
coincides with modest troughing in initial model 700 mb wind field
and in the San Juan/Santo Domingo rawindsonde observations. TPW
satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in an area of
deep-layer moisture, especially east of the wave axis. Despite
this, there is no significant convection associated with this
wave, possibly due to convergent upper-level winds in ridging to
the south of Hurricane Jose.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends west from the African coast near
14N17W to 10N19W to 06N35W. The ITCZ continues from 06N35W to
09N54W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave/
surface low along 29W, scattered moderate convection is observed
from 05N-14N between 17W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Light to gentle winds are present across the Gulf with no
significant deep convection being present. Surface troughing is
developing across the southeast waters from the Yucatan Channel to
the coast of Tampa with isolated showers. This pattern is expected
to remain in place for the next couple of days. It is worth
noting that southern and southeastern Mexico will see the combined
impact of Pacific Tropical Storm Max and the monsoon trough
lifting northward. These will produce copious amounts of rain and
have the potential for flash floods and mudslides.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave extends across the eastern Caribbean. Please
refer to the section above for details. A weak ridge extends from
just north of the Lesser Antilles to the northwestern Bahamas.
Winds across much of the Caribbean are in the gentle to moderate
range. These winds will pick up to a fresh breeze on the east side
of the tropical wave as it moves west.

...HISPANIOLA...

A dry weather regime continues over the island as strong ridging
to the south of Hurricane Jose remains in place. Upper-level
cloudiness from the outflow of Jose remains in place. Shower
coverage should be isolated along the higher terrain during
daytime heating through the next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more
information on Hurricane Jose, and the Tropical Waves section for
information on the tropical wave in the basin. Two surface
troughs are present: one from 14N48W to 11N52W and a second one
from 20N39W to 21N41W. Isolated showers are occurring within 60
nm of these troughs. The first trough should fade in the next day
or so. The second trough should gradually move northward with
convection, though no tropical development is expected. Finally,
a frontal system extends across the central Atlantic analyzed as a
cold front from 31N45W to 28N55W then as a stationary front from
that point to 31N60W. Scattered showers are present within 60 nm
of the cold front. The remainder of the basin remains under the
influence of ridging from a 1027 mb Azores high centered near
40N22W extending southwestward to 23N55W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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