[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130512
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
112 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America,
and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N.
The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather
observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 13/0300 UTC, the center of Hurricane Jose is near 26.5N 66.4W,
moving SE at 8 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is
985 mb. The maximum sustained winds remain 65 kt with gusts to 80
kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted
within 90 NM of the center. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is seen elsewhere from 23N to 27N between 63W
and 69W. Jose is forecast to slowly make an anticyclonic loop
between the Bahamas and Bermuda during the next several days.
Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers /Tent Knack for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave over the E Atlantic has an axis extending from
30n91w to 16n49w, moving west around 15 kt. This wave coincides
with well defined troughing in initial model 700 mb wind fields.
Semi TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in a
large area of deep-layer moisture. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 16W and 29W.

A tropical wave over the E Atlantic has an axis extending from
new to new, moving west at 20 to 25 kt. Troughing in initial
model 700 mb wind fields associated with this wave has become weak
and oriented from SW to NE due to interaction with a sharp mid to
upper-level trough stretching from new to 25n53w. Semi TPW
satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in an area of
deep-layer moisture. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is present from 22N to 24N between 33W and 39W.

A tropical wave over the Caribbean has an axis extending from
new to new, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. This wave coincides with
modest troughing in initial model 700 mb wind fields. Semi TPW
satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in an area of
deep-layer moisture. Despite this, there is no significant
convection associated with this wave, possibly due to convergent
upper-level winds in ridging to the south of Hurricane Jose.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends SW from Senegal on the African Coast
near 16n17w to 18n94w to new. Besides convection associated with
tropical waves, there is no significant convection associated with
the monsoon trough.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A light wind regime has developed over the basin as weak ridging
builds over the Gulf of Mexico. Light to moderate winds and seas
ranging between 3 and 5 ft generally prevail across the Gulf. This
tranquil weather pattern is expected to remain in place for the
next couple of days as seas continue to subside.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak ridge of high pressure extends from just N of puerto Rico
to South Florida. A tropical wave is propagating through the
eastern Caribbean. Winds across much of the Caribbean are in the
light to gentle range, with seas in the 2-3 ft range. Winds over
the eastern Caribbean are a bit stronger, in the gentle to
moderate range, due to a tighter gradient between the tropical
wave and the ridge. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over this area.
Locally enhanced trades are expected to follow the tropical wave
as it propagates across the Caribbean waters.

...HISPANIOLA...

A dry weather regime continues over the island as strong ridging
to the south of jose remains in place. Shower coverage should be
limited to the higher terrain during daytime heating, with
isolated thunderstorms expected.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more
information on Hurricane Jose, and the tropical waves section for
information on the tropical waves over the basin. Aside for these
areas, the remainder of the basin remains under the influence of
ridging extending SW from a 1027 mb Azores high centered near
40N22W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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