[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121656
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1256 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 12/1500 UTC, the center of Hurricane Jose is near 27.5N 68.3W,
moving E at 4 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is
987 mb. The maximum sustained wind are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within
180 NM southeast and 90 nm northwest semicircles. Jose is
forecast to slowly make an anti-cyclonic loop northeast of the
Bahamas during the next several days. Please read the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave over the E Atlantic is near 40W from
02N to 21N, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 21N between 36W
and 45W.

The axis of a tropical wave over the Caribbean is near 65W from
02N to 21N, moving west around 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection
is noted from 11N to 14N between 63W and 68W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa, and exits the coast
near 13.5N17W to 10.5N24W to 10.5N32W. The ITCZ extends from
13N51W to 13.5N61W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from
04N to 08N between 15W and 32W. Scattered moderate convection was
noted within 90 nm south of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Winds and seas across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico continue to
decrease as Tropical Depression Irma further weakens. Latest
surface observations indicate gentle to moderate winds with seas
in the 4-6 ft range prevail. Dry air wrapping around the south
side of this system has cleared out cloud cover over the NE Gulf,
with limited shower activity.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak ridge of high pressure extends along 20N. A tropical wave
is propagating through the eastern Caribbean. Winds across much of
the Caribbean are in the light to gentle range, with seas in the
2-3 ft range. Winds over the eastern Caribbean are a bit
stronger, in the gentle to moderate range, due to a tighter
gradient between the tropical wave and the ridge. Seas are in the
3-5 ft range over this area. Locally enhanced trades are expected
to follow the tropical wave as it propagates across the Caribbean
waters.

...HISPANIOLA...

A dry weather regime continues over the island. Shower coverage
should be limited to the higher terrain during daytime heating,
with isolated thunderstorms expected.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more information
on Hurricane Jose, and the tropical waves section for information
on the tropical waves over the basin. Aside for these areas, the
remainder of the basin remains under the influence of ridging
extending SW from a 1026 mb Azores high centered near 39N24W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AL
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