[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112355
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
754 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 12/0000 UTC, the center of T.S. Irma is well inland near xx.xN
xx.xW or about NM east of Tallahassee, Florida, moving north-
northwest at 15 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987
mb. Maximum sustained wind speeds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt.
Irma is forecast to move to S Georgia in 24 hours. Please read the
latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and, the Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

At 11/2100 UTC, the center of Hurricane Jose is near 26.4N 69.2W,
or about 315 NM north-northeast of Grand Turk Island, moving
north at 11 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 973
mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 85 kt with gusts to 105
kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 90 NM in the
SE semicircle only. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
was noted elsewhere within 90 NM in the NW and 150 NM in the SE
semicircles. Jose is forecast to make an anti-cyclonic loop
northeast of the Bahamas over the next several days. Please read
the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis extending from
18N33W to 05N34W, moving west at 15-20 kt. This wave coincides
with a 700 mb trough, as noted in model guidance. SSMI TPW
satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in an area of
deep-layer moisture. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
within 180 nm W of the wave axis from 15N to 18N.

A tropical wave is currently crossing the Windward and Leeward
Islands into the far eastern Caribbean. The wave axis extends
from 19N61W to 07N62W, moving west at 15 kt. This wave coincides
with moderate troughing at 700 mb wind fields. SSMI TPW satellite
imagery indicates the wave is embedded in an area of deep-layer
moisture. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 10N-14N between 55W-61W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the west coast of Africa near
18N16W to 13N30W to low pressure 1011 mb near 13N44W to 12N52W.
The ITCZ continues from 12N52W to 11N60W. Strong upper level
diffluence SE of an upper trough is generating a large area of
convection outside the tropical waves from 10N to 17N between 37W
and 50W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The center of T.S. Irma is inland over southern Georgia moving NNW
further into Georgia. Fresh to strong winds are noted over the
northeast Gulf waters with seas still in the 8 to 11 FT range.
Broken to overcast low clouds accompanied the strong winds on the
backside of Irma with embedded showers noted. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds prevail over the western half of the basin while a
surface ridge builds across the area. A surface trough over the
southern Gulf of Mexico extended from 22N90W to 23N96W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave moving through the Leeward and Windward islands
is enhancing scattered moderate convection across the southern Windward
Islands at this time. This activity will continue moving west
with the wave affecting the southern Caribbean waters. An area of
scattered showers prevails across the far northwestern waters
south of Cuba north of 18N west of 80W. Scatterometer data depicts
light sub-normal trades across most of the area except west of
80W, where moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over
the north coast of the Dominican Republic with high level outflow
cirrus clouds from Hurricane Jose sweeping across the island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information
concerning T.S. Irma and Hurricane Jose. Also, see the section
above for information about the tropical waves across the basin.
Aside for these areas, the remainder of the basin is under the
influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1019 mb high near
26N51W and a larger 1025 mb high over the Azores.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Cobb
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