[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111730
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 11/1500 UTC, the center of T.S. Irma is inland near 30.3N
83.1W or about 61 NM east of Tallahassee, Florida, moving north-
northwest at 15 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 975
mb. Maximum sustained wind speeds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt.
Irma is forecast to move to S Georgia in 24 hours. Please read the
latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and, the Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

At 11/1500 UTC, the center of Hurricane Jose is near 25.5N 69.1W,
or about 265 NM north-northeast of Grand Turk Island, moving
north-northwest at 10 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 968 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 90 kt
with gusts to 110 kt. Jose is forecast to turn more toward the
north- northeast over the next 24 hours. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is from 23N-28N between 67W-72W. Please read the
latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and, the Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis extending from
18N31W to 05N32W, moving west at 15-20 kt. This wave coincides
with a 700 mb trough, as noted in model guidance. SSMI TPW
satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in an area of
deep-layer moisture. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm
on either side of the wave's axis.

A tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean during the next
few hours. Currently, the wave's axis extends from 19N59W to
07N60W, moving west at 15 kt. This wave coincides with moderate
troughing at 700 mb wind fields. SSMI TPW satellite imagery
indicates the wave is embedded in an area of deep-layer moisture.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N-14N between 58W-
65W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the west coast of Africa near
17N16W to 13N32W to 12N47W. The ITCZ continues from 12N47W to
11N57W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
waves, scattered moderate convection is from 10N-15N between 35W-
58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The center of T.S. Irma is inland over northern Florida moving to
southern Georgia. Fresh to strong winds are noted over the
northeast Gulf waters while moderate to fresh northerly winds
prevail over the western half of the basin while a surface ridge
builds across the area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles enhancing
scattered moderate convection across the Windward Islands at this
time. This activity will continue moving west with the wave
affecting the southern Caribbean waters. An area of scattered
showers prevails across the far northwestern waters south of Cuba
north of 18N west of 80W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle trades
across most of the area except west of 80W, where moderate to
fresh southerly winds prevail.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Expect
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to build over the
island during afternoon and evening maximum heating Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information
concerning T.S. Irma and Hurricane Jose. Also, see the section
above for information about the tropical waves across the basin.
Aside for these areas, the remainder of the basin is under the
influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1019 mb high near
28N58W and a 1027 mb high near 39N29W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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