[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 10/0600 UTC, the center of Hurricane Irma is near 23.7N 81.3W
or about 61 NM SSE of Key West, Florida, moving NW, or 310
degrees, at 6 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is
down to 931 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 115 kt with
gusts to 140 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted within 90 nm
of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
elsewhere from 20N-31N between 76W-84W. Squalls extend from the
Cayman Islands to N Florida, and between the N Bahamas and the SE
Gulf of Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and, the
Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
for more details.

At 10/0600 UTC, the center of Hurricane Jose is near 20.4N 64.0W,
or about 139 NM NNW of the northern Leeward Islands, moving NW,
or 310 degrees, at 12 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 944 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 115 kt
with gusts to 140 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted within
60 nm of the center of Jose. Scattered moderate convection is
elsewhere from 18N-22N between 62W-66W. Scattered moderate
convection also E of the center in a feeder band from 17N-22N
between 59W-61W. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and, the
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is has off the west coast of Africa with axis
from 17N21W to a 1012 mb low near 10N22W to 04N23W moving W at 10
to 15 kt. This wave coincides with a sharp 700 mb trough. SSMI
TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in an area of
deep layer moisture. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is W of the low from 09N- 12N between 22W-26W.

A tropical wave extends from 19N51W to 07N52W, moving west at 15
knots. This wave coincides with moderate troughing in 700 mb wind
fields. SSMI TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded
in an area of deep layer moisture. Widely scattered moderate
convection is noted from 11N-17N between 46W-56W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 15N17W
to 10N22W to 10N39W. The ITCZ continues from 10N39W to 11N45W to
10N51W. The ITCZ continues W of a tropical wave from 10N54W to
08N60W. Aside from the convection associated with the
Atlantic tropical wave, widely scattered moderate convection is
from 07N-10N between 32W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Hurricane Irma is over the E Gulf of Mexico E of 84W to include W
Cuba and the Florida Peninsula. See above. Tropical storm force
winds extend 170 NE, 170 SE, 120 SW, 180 NW, from the center (nm).
Hurricane Irma is presently moving towards the lower Florida Keys.
Elsewhere scattered showers are over the Bay of Campeche S of 21N.
In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over N Alabama
near 33N87W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Hurricane Irma is moving away from the north coast of Cuba.
Bands of strong convection are over sweeping over portions of
W Cuba producing very heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
Convective bands extend southward in the Caribbean to the Cayman
Islands. Hurricane Jose is moving away from the Leeward Islands.
Scattered showers still remain over ne Puerto Rico. Outside of
the influence of Irma, a light to moderate sub- normal trade wind
regime prevails over most of the Caribbean as the pressure
gradient to the south of Irma and Jose remains weak. Seas outside
the influence of Hurricanes Irma and Jose are generally in the 3-5
ft range over the eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft over the western
Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are streaming northward from the Caribbean
across Haiti and the western Dominican Republic. This low level
moisture feed will gradually move west of the island on Sunday as
Hurricane Irma moves further away from the area.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the special features section above for information
concerning Hurricanes Irma and Jose. Besides Hurricanes Irma and
T.S.Jose, gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 5-7 ft range
prevail. Seas over the extreme western north Atlantic waters are
in the 7-11 foot range as a result of swell generated by
Hurricane Irma. These seas will increase on Sunday as Hurricane
Irma is forecast to move northward along the Florida west coast
and the large wind field affects the western Atlantic. Otherwise,
a 1032 mb Azores high is centered near 43N33W with ridging
extending to the E Atlantic. Moderate to fresh trades are evident
in satellite derived wind data between the monsoon trough/ITCZ
and 25N between 20W and 50W. Two tropical waves are also over the
tropical Atlantic. See above.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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