[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
802 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 09/0000 UTC, the center of Hurricane Irma is near 22.0N 77.2W,
or about 275 nm SE of Miami Florida. Irma is moving W, or 280
degrees, at 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is
924 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 135 kt with gusts to
165 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is
noted within 90 nm of the center of Irma. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is found elsewhere in the south
semicircle within 210 nm and in the north semicircle within 150
nm. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and, the Forecast/
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more
details.

At 09/0000 UTC, the center of Hurricane Jose is near 16.7N 58.8W,
or about 265 nm ESE of the Northern Leeward Islands. Jose is
moving WNW, or 285 degrees, at 15 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 938 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are
130 kt with gusts to 160 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered
strong convection was noted within 60 nm of the center of Jose.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong was noted elsewhere from 15N
to 19N between 55W and 60W. Please read the latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and, the Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

At 09/0000 UTC, the center of Hurricane Katia is near 20.9N
96.8W, or about 115 nm SE of Tampico Mexico. Katia is moving WSW,
or 250 degrees, at 7 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure
is 972 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 90 kt with gusts
to 110 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection was
noted within 30 nm of the center. A surface trough extending NNW
from Katia to the Tamaulipas coast near 25N97W is supporting
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection elsewhere from
21N to 26N between 95W and 98W. Please read the latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory issued under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and Forecast/Advisories issued under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has an axis extending from 04N42W to 21N41W,
moving westward around 20 knots. This wave coincides with moderate
troughing in initial model 700 mb wind fields. TPW satellite
imagery indicates the wave is embedded in an area of deep layer
moisture. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 12N to 14N between 40W and 47W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Senegal on the coast of Africa
near 11N14W to 09N20W to 10N33W to 08N40W to 09N46W. The ITCZ
continues from 09N46W to 08N50W to 09N53W. Aside from the
convection associated with the Atlantic tropical wave, Numerous
moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 07N to
11N between 13W and 16W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is seen from 05N to 10N between 18W and 22W and within
30 nm either side of a line from 06N25W to 09N33W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the special features section for more on
Hurricane Katia, located over the southwest Gulf. The circulation
of Hurricane Irma will be large enough to cause winds over the
Gulf of Mexico E of 90W to increase Saturday through Tuesday.
Please consult the special features section for more information
on Irma. Outside of the influence of Katia, moderate to fresh
winds prevail, with seas in the 1-3 ft range over the eastern Gulf
and 4-6 ft range over the western Gulf.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Hurricane Irma is passing just north of Cuba. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection will affect the waters south of
Cuba and north of 20N through Sunday night. Fresh to strong winds
to the south of Irma will occur over the waters south of Cuba and
north of 18N during the same time frame. Outside of the influence
of Irma, a light to moderate wind regime will prevail over most of
the Caribbean as the pressure gradient to the south of Irma and
Jose remains weak. Seas are generally in the 4-5 ft range over the
eastern Caribbean, and 1-3 ft over the western Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

The center of Hurricane Irma is passing north of central Cuba.
Convergent low-level flow into Irma is supporting isolated
thunderstorms over the Dominican Republic. Conditions will improve
slowly during the next couple of days as ridging between Irma and
Jose builds over the island. Isolated thunderstorms can still be
expected over the higher terrain of the island during daytime
heating as the atmosphere will remain moist enough to support deep
convection.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the special features section above for information
concerning Hurricanes Irma and Jose. Besides Hurricanes Irma and
Jose, gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 5-7 ft range
prevail. Seas over the southwest north Atlantic waters are in the
9-13 foot range as a result of swell generated by Hurricane Irma.
Otherwise, an Azores high centered near 43N34W dominates the
remainder of the Atlc Ocean. Moderate to fresh trades are evident
in satellite-derived wind data between the monsoon trough/ITCZ and
25N between 20W and 50W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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