[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Irma Local Statement Advisory Number 38
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL112017
1149 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

This product covers EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

**MAJOR HURRICANE IRMA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD FLORIDA**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Storm Surge
      Warning for Indian River, Martin, and St. Lucie
    - A Storm Surge Watch has been issued and a Hurricane Watch has
      been issued for Coastal Volusia County, Northern Brevard
      County, and Southern Brevard County
    - A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Inland Volusia County,
      Northern Lake County, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Southern
      Lake County

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Indian River, Martin, and St. Lucie
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Coastal Volusia County, Northern Brevard County, and Southern
      Brevard County
    - A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Inland Volusia County,
      Northern Lake County, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Seminole,
      and Southern Lake County

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 580 miles southeast of Orlando FL or about 500 miles
      southeast of Vero Beach FL
    - 22.0N 75.3W
    - Storm Intensity 150 mph
    - Movement West-northwest or 285 degrees at 14 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Dangerous Hurricane Irma will approach the southern Florida
Peninsula Saturday as a powerful Category 4 storm. Irma will move
west-northwest through the southern Bahamas and the eastern Florida
Straits late today before making a forecast turn to the north-
northwest by Saturday evening. The eye of Irma is forecast to reach
south Florida Sunday morning, and then move over the Florida peninsula
Sunday through early Monday morning as a strong hurricane.
Deteriorating weather conditions, including flooding rain, squalls and
extremely dangerous seas and surf, will spread northward well out
ahead of Irma's center.

It is now very likely that this major hurricane will have significant
and potentially devastating impact to persons in east central
Florida!! Extreme winds are of life-threatening concern and will have
the potential for widespread damage along Irma's track. There will
also be an increasing threat for tornadoes within rainband squalls
this weekend.

Efforts to protect life and property should already be underway! From
around Lake Okeechobee to the Treasure coast counties, every effort
should be taken to bring hurricane preparations to completion by
Saturday afternoon, before weather conditions deteriorate. Areas
farther north from greater Kissimmee-Saint Cloud, Orlando, Sanford,
and Lake County eastward to the Space Coast and the greater Daytona
Beach area should have preparations completed by Saturday evening.

If evacuation orders are issued for your area, leave as soon as
practical. Irma will be affecting a large number of Floridians and
roadways may be congested.

Hurricane force winds and gusts from Irma will extend well inland.

Storm surge and flooding rain are also of considerable concern.
Several places along the East Central Florida shoreline still have
weakened beaches and dunes from Hurricane Matthew last season. Similar
values of storm surge flooding 4 to 6 feet above ground are again
possible combined with battering waves.

Wind driven water inundation will also be possible in areas adjacent
to larger inland lakes, such as Lakes Okeechobee, Kissimmee, and Lake
George, as well as the Intracoastal Waterway.

Although Irma will be moving steadily forward, it will produce 8 to
12 inches of rain with locally higher amounts up to 16 inches. Peak
rainfall may maximize near and in vicinity of the track including
coastal areas supported by strong onshore wind flow. However, Irma
will also interact with a frontal boundary which may increase rainfall
totals for inland areas.

Ahead of Irma, surf conditions will become hazardous as large swells
bring high surf and increasingly strong rip currents. Beach erosion
will ensue, and become progressively worse throughout the weekend and
into Monday.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible devastating
impacts across east central Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
      and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
      greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
      may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
    - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Widespread power and communications outages.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts in coastal areas. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, piers, and other
      coastal structures. Several small craft broken away from
      moorings, especially in unprotected anchorages.

Communities adjacent to Lake Okeechobee, where a Hurricane Warning is
now in effect, as well as the Intracoastal Waterway, should take
actions now to protect life and property from potential water runup,
and the potential for local surge inundation.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across east central Florida. Potential impacts
include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swift
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
      ditches will overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      will become hazardous with some road and bridge closures.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across east central Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders
that are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives
of others.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess your risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding from heavy rain. If you decide to move,
consider relocating to a safer location nearby. Help keep roadways
open for those under evacuation orders.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
When securing your property, outside preparations should be
concluded as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The
onset of strong gusty winds and heavy rain can cause certain
preparedness activities to become unsafe.

If you live in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near
looming trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high rise
building, or on a boat, plan to move to a safer shelter.

Closely monitor weather.gov websites, NOAA Weather Radio, or other
local news outlets for official storm information. Be ready to adapt
to possible changes to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways
to receive weather warnings.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 6 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Ulrich
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