[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Irma, at 07/0600 UTC is near 19.7N
67.7W, or about 75 nm to the NNW of San Juan in Puerto Rico, or
about 220 nm to the ESE of Grand Turk Island. Irma is moving
WNW, 290 degrees, 14 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 921 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 160 kt
with gusts to 195 kt. Irma is the strongest hurricane to be in
the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of
Mexico. Irma has a well defined eye about 20 NM in diameter.
Convective precipitation: numerous strong within 120 nm of the
center in the E and SE quadrants, and within 60 nm to 90 nm of
the center elsewhere. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong elsewhere from 17N to 22N between 60W and 70W. Please
read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and, the Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

The center of Hurricane Jose, at 07/0300 UTC is near 14.4N
47.5W, or about 1150 NM ESE of Hurricane Irma. Jose is moving
WNW, 290 degrees, 15 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 989 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 75 kt
with gusts to 90 kt. Convective precipitation: Scattered strong
within 120 nm of the center in the N semicircle, and within 90
nm of the center in the S semicircle. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong elsewhere from 10N to 17N between 44W and 50W.
Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and, the Forecast/
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more
details.

The center of Hurricane Katia, at 07/0600 UTC, is in the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico near 21.6N 94.7W, or about 180 nm E
of Tampico, Mexico, or about 165 nm NNE of Veracruz in Mexico.
Katia is moving ESE, 105 degrees, 2 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 989 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds
are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Convective precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong within 110 nm of the center in the
NE semicircle, and within 50 nm of the center in the SW
semicircle. Scattered to numerous strong is in NW sections of
Guatemala. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
elsewhere in Mexico, from 20N southward between 90W and 100W.
Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and, the
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 15N27W, to a 1013 mb
low pressure center that is near 09N31W, to 03N32W, moving W 10
to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to
strong from 10N to 13N between 29W and 35W. isolated moderate
from 08N to 11N between 35W and 37W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends from 23N86W, to the
western part of Honduras along 87W/88W near 15N, to 06N88W in
the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong in Central America to the south of
12N85W 15N88W 14N90W, encompassing Nicaragua, Honduras, and El
Salvador.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough passes through 19N16W at the coast of
Mauritania, to 13N20W, 08N30W, and to 08N35W. The ITCZ continues
from 08N35W to 07N39W and 08N41W. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 10N southward
from 45W eastward, and from 16N southward between 48W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Hurricane Katia is in the SW corner of the area.
Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow, and multilayered clouds and
isolated moderate to locally strong convective precipitation are
elsewhere in the area, away from Hurricane Katia, from 25N
northward from 90W westward, and from 25N northward between 80W
and 90W. A cold front passes through 32N80W, off the coast of
South Carolina and Georgia, through SE Georgia and the Florida
Big Bend, to 26N93W in the Gulf of Mexico.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Category 5 Hurricane Irma is about 75 nm to the NNE of the Mona
Passage. The long-range forecast moves Irma just outside the
islands of the Caribbean Sea, passing to the north of and
missing Hispaniola, and Cuba. Irma is forecast to pass through
the Atlantic Ocean, but very close and to the north of the
Greater Antilles.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 18N79W to the
south of Jamaica. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area
that is from 75W westward. The NE corner of the Caribbean Sea is
being affected by the circulation that encompasses Hurricane
Irma.

...HISPANIOLA...

Hurricane Irma is forecast to be in the Atlantic Ocean, in the
northern coastal waters of Hispaniola, for the entire day today,
on Thursday. Its forecast track carries it northwestward into
the area of the SE Bahamas late on Thursday/early on Friday
morning. Irma is forecast to move between Cuba and the Bahamas
from Friday into Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
Hurricane Irma, and Hurricane Jose.

An upper level trough passes through a 34N35W cyclonic
circulation center, to 27N39W, and to 19N43W. A surface trough
passes through 34N46W to 31N47W. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate from 32N northward between 30W and 40W.
Rainshowers are possible from 30N to 32N northward between 43W
and 55W. Rainshowers are possible also elsewhere from 20N
northward between 40W and 70W.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow, that is moving around
Hurricane Irma, is merging with upper level SW wind flow that is
moving from the Gulf of Mexico northeastward, across Florida and
into the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front passes through 32N80W, off
the coast of South Carolina and Georgia, through SE Georgia and
the Florida Big Bend, to 26N93W in the Gulf of Mexico.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from the
Bahamas northward from 70W westward.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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