[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051750
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
150 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Irma at 05/1800 UTC is near 16.9N 59.1W,
or about 156 nm to the E of Antigua. Irma is moving W, or about
275 degrees, at 12 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure
is 926 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 160 kt with
gusts to 195 kt. Irma is an extremely dangerous Category Five
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Numerous
strong convection is within 120 nm radius of the center. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 14N-20N between 55W-61W.
Warnings and watches have been issued for the Leeward Islands,
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Please read the latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Jose at 05/1500 UTC is near 12.3N
39.1W, 1307 nm E of the Lesser Antilles, moving WNW, or about 290
degrees, at 11 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is
1008 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 kt with gusts
to 45 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 10N-13N between
38W-41W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 08N-14N
between 37W-42W. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the
Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.

A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico,
from 25N98W to an embedded 1011 mb low near 22N97W to 19N95W.
Numerous strong convection is E of the trough axis from 20N-24N
between 92W-96W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from
18N-25N between 91W-98W. There is a medium chance for tropical
cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is off the coast of W Africa. Its axis extends
from 17N20W to 06N21W, moving W at 10 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows
the wave is in a very moist area. The wave is also within a
distinct 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N-
18N between 17W-20W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 120 nm
of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from E Cuba at 20N75W to 06N76W, moving W at 10-15 kt. SSMI TPW
imagery shows the wave is in a moderately moist area. The wave is
also within a distinct surface and 700 mb trough. Scattered
showers are over Hispaniola and Jamaica. Scattered moderate
convection is over E Cuba, Jamaica, and N Colombia.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to
09N21W to 09N30W. Aside from the convection associated with the
Atlantic tropical wave, widely scattered moderate convection is
from 06N-09N between 24W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the SW Gulf of Mexico. See the special
feature section above. Further N, scattered moderate convection is
over the NW Gulf of Mexico from 26N-29N between 86W-97W. Scattered
showers are over the E Gulf and Florida E of 86W. In the upper
levels, an upper level low is centered over N Mexico near
27N104W. Upper level diffluence E of this low is enhancing the
convection over the W Gulf. Expect the convection over the SW
Caribbean to persist. Also expect increased convection over S
Florida and the Straits of Florida over the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Hurricane Irma is a major hurricane approaching the Leeward
Islands. See Above. A tropical wave is also over the central
Caribbean. See above. In addition, the eastern extent of the E
Pacific monsoon trough traverses Costa Rica and Panama
intersecting with a tropical wave. 10-15 kt tradewinds are over
the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. In the upper levels, an upper
ridge is over the Caribbean Sea with axis along 76W. Expect the
Leeward Islands to be under the influence of Hurricane Irma over
the next 48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently, mostly fair weather is over the Island. Upper level
subsidence and dry air is also over the Island. Looking ahead,
Hurricane Irma is forecast to approach the Island early Thursday.
See Special Feature for further details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Major Hurricane Irma and T.S. Jose are over the Atlantic. A
tropical wave is also off the coast of W Africa. See above.
Scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic from 29N-32N
between 77W-80W. A Surface trough is also over the W Atlantic
from 28N72W to the central Bahamas at 23N76W. Another surface
trough is over the E Atlantic from 31N32W to 24N35W. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of this trough. A 1030 mb high is
centered over the central Atlantic near 39N44W. Another 1028 mb
high is centered over the E Atlantic near 36N23W. Of note in the
upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the E Atlantic
near 32N33W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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