[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032353
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
753 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Irma is centered near 17.4N 50.3W at 04/0000 UTC or
about 660 nm E of the Leeward Islands moving W at 12 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Scattered to numerous
moderate and isolated strong convection is within 90 nm of center.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 14N-20N between
45W-53W. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full Forecast/
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 05N32W to 16N32W moving W at 10 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 28W-37W and a
maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of a 1011 mb
low centered along the monsoon trough near 10N32W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 05N-13N between 30W-38W.

A tropical wave extends from 10N74W to 22N72W moving W at 10-15
kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 69W-
76W and continues to move W away from influence of an upper level
inverted trough over the eastern Caribbean Seas along 69W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 17N-20N between 67W-78W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N17W to
11N23W to 10N37W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-12N
between 12W-17W. Widely scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
from 05N-09N between 17W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Water vapor imagery indicates an upper level trough extending
from over the SE CONUS to a broad base over much of the basin
this evening. The troughing provides for a fairly weak pressure
gradient across the entire Gulf with most ongoing convection
occurring across the southern waters. Scattered showers and tstms
are S of 25N between 83W-99W...including coastal area of eastern
Mexico. A surface trough analyzed from 18N92W to 22N94W is
providing the focus for broad gentle to moderate cyclonic flow
across the SW Gulf. This feature is expected to dampen out by late
Monday night into early Tuesday. Elsewhere...gentle to moderate
easterly winds prevail with isolated showers and tstms occurring
across the Florida peninsula and across the NW waters W of 95W.
A surface ridge axis is expected to anchor along 30N Tuesday...
gradually slide southward...and weaken by Wednesday as a weak
frontal boundary moves off the Texas and Louisiana coasts.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Water vapor imagery indicates most moisture remains W of 83W with
scattered showers and isolated strong tstms occurring across
interior portions of Central America and the Yucatan peninsula.
Otherwise...a weak inverted upper level trough remains along 80W
and is generating isolated showers and tstms N of 16N between
75W-83W...on the heels of an approaching tropical wave along 74W.
Convection associated with the tropical wave continues this
evening across Jamaica...eastern Cuba...and Hispaniola as it
moves westward. Looking beyond this weekend...Hurricane Irma
looms across the central tropical Atlc and is forecast to
approach 60W Tuesday evening into the overnight hours.

...HISPANIOLA...
Scattered showers and tstms are expected to continue through the
overnight hours into Monday as a tropical wave currently along 74W
continues moving westward. The wave is expected to pass west of
the island by late Monday with conditions gradually improving on
Tuesday. Looking ahead...Hurricane Irma is forecast to approach
from the east and likely be centered N-NE of the island Thursday
afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough is progressing over the NE CONUS
this evening supporting a cold front extending from 32N77W to
30N82W. Isolated showers are occurring within 120 nm either side
of the front...and N of 25N W of 77W as southwesterly flow aloft
prevails over the SW North Atlc. Isolated showers and tstms are
also occurring across the Bahamas from 24N-28N between 75W-78W.
Farther east...an upper level low is centered near 27N62W and
supports a dissipating stationary front extending from 32N56W SW
to 27N67W. While isolated showers are occurring within 120 nm
either side of the boundary...upper level divergence between the
upper level low and an upper level anticyclone centered near
27N70W is generating an area of scattered showers and tstms from
21N-29N between 59W-67W. Lastly...Hurricane Irma remains on the
southern periphery of a ridge anchored by a 1023 mb high centered
near 33N42W. The eastern Atlc is under the influence of another
ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high centered S-SE of the Azores near
34N25W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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