[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301611
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1211 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
06N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 06N16W to
05N20W to 06N34W to 05N41W. Scattered moderate convection is from
03N-10N between 28W-43W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
from 06N-13N between 43W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A middle to upper level trough extends from over the Mid-Atlc
region south-southeastward to a broad base over the NE Gulf near
26N87W. Water vapor imagery indicates very dry air and overall
subsidence over the basin supporting a surface ridge anchored by a
1019 mb high centered near 28N90W. E of 90W...N-NE winds remain
gentle to moderate and are expected to gradually veer more
easterly through the overnight hours. W of 90W...gentle to
moderate southerly return flow is currently occurring and is
expected to increase slightly through tonight into occasional
fresh breeze levels. The next frontal boundary is expected to
reach the SE Texas coastal plains tonight but stall and lift back
northward on early Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Southwesterly flow aloft is noted on water vapor imagery over the
far NW Caribbean occurring between an upper level anticyclonic
circulation centered N of Hispaniola near 22N71W and an upper
level trough progressing over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and
Florida peninsula this afternoon. The troughing supports a cold
front extending across the Windward Passage region to N of Jamaica
then becomes stationary from 19N78W to the Gulf of Honduras near
16N87W. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring
within 120 nm either side of the boundary. A pre-frontal surface
trough extends from 18N75W to 11N83W with low-level moisture
convergence maximized along the axis generating scattered showers
and isolated tstms within 180 nm either side of the trough and S
of 11N between 74W-85W. Finally...the Lesser Antilles remain
fairly tranquil this afternoon and under mostly clear skies. A
surface trough lies to the SE from 09N62W to 14N59W and will
continue to generate isolated showers and tstms across Trinidad
and Tobago and the waters S of 13N E of 70W.

...HISPANIOLA...
Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring across the
island this afternoon due to a surface trough analyzed from the NE
coast near 19N69W to 25N68W. A favorable upper level divergent
environment is helping to enhance the ongoing convection.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends into the discussion area near 32N67W
extending S-SW to 26N70W to the Windward Passage region near
20N74W. The cold front is supported aloft by a middle to upper
level trough with axis extending over the eastern CONUS. Widely
scattered showers are occurring generally within 180 nm E of the
boundary. Farther east...another middle to upper level trough
extends from 32N46W SW to a broad base E of the Lesser Antilles
near 10N57W. The trough supports a 1010 mb low centered near
31N47W with the associated cold front extending from the low SW
to 24N50W to 22N58W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring
primarily E of the low and front from 20N-36N between 37W-50W.
Otherwise...the remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the
influence of a surface ridge with axis extending from the Azores
near 36N28W SW to 18N45W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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