[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
154 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 28.7N 75.4W at 29/1800
UTC or about 215 nm NE of Freeport Grand Bahama Island and about
275 nm ENE of Vero Beach Florida moving ENE at 40 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 26N-33N between 73W-78W. See the latest NHC Intermediate
Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and
the full NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/
WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
08N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 08N21W to
04N30W to 07N45W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 02N-
07N between 02W-24W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-10N
between 24W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A vigorous middle to upper level trough extends over the Great
Lakes region south-southeastward to over northern Florida
supporting a cold front extending across the Florida peninsula
from Lake Okeechobee SW to the NW coast of Cuba near 23N84W and
across the Yucatan Channel region. A secondary wave of northern
energy is analyzed N of the cold front as a surface trough
extending from 26N84W to 22N91W. E of 90W...N-NW winds remain
fresh to strong behind the front and are expected to gradually
diminish through the evening and overnight hours as the front
pushes farther east and high pressure builds in across the
eastern Gulf. W of 90W...northerly winds range gentle to moderate
this afternoon as a high center across portions of southern Texas
moves eastward across the northern Gulf through Monday night.
Winds are expected to remain light to gentle across the western
Gulf as the high moves eastward. By Monday...southerly return
flow will re-establish itself across the NW Gulf as the next
frontal boundary is expected to reach the SE Texas coastal plain
but stall and weaken on Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Southwesterly flow aloft is noted on water vapor imagery over the
NW Caribbean occurring between an upper level anticyclonic
circulation centered over the Windward Passage region and an upper
level trough progressing over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and
Florida peninsula this afternoon. The troughing supports a cold
front extending across far western Cuba to the Yucatan peninsula
ushering in moderate to fresh NW winds across portions of the
western Caribbean and Central America. Farther east...a pre-
frontal surface trough extends from Andros Island in the Bahamas
across eastern Cuba to offshore of NE Nicaragua near 14N82W. Low-
level moisture convergence in the vicinity of the surface trough
along with middle to upper level divergence in association with
the ridging aloft are generating scattered showers and isolated
tstms N of 16N between 66W-79W...and from 14N-19N between 79W-86W.
Finally...the Lesser Antilles remain fairly tranquil this
afternoon and under mostly clear skies. A surface trough lies to
the SE from 08N59W to 14N54W and will continue to generate
isolated showers and tstms across Trinidad and Tobago and the
waters S of 12N E of 64W.

...HISPANIOLA...
Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring across the
island this afternoon due to a surface troughapproaching the
area from the west and an existing surface trough analyzed across
the eastern portion of the island along 70W. A favorable upper
level divergent environment is helping to enhance the ongoing
convection.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Tropical Storm Philippe is becoming absorbed into a cold front
extending into the discussion area near 32N80W extending S-SW
across the Florida peninsula from Daytona Beach to near Naples.
The cold front is supported aloft by a middle to upper level
trough with axis extending over the eastern CONUS. Scattered
showers and tstms are occurring in association with Philippe from
26N-33N between 73W-78W...with scattered showers and isolated
tstms elsewhere S of 26N between 67W-78W. Farther east...another
middle to upper level trough is along 51W and supports a partially
occluded 1011 mb low centered near 29N50W. The associated cold
front extends from the low SW to 25N52W to 23N60W. Scattered
showers and isolated tstms are occurring from 23N-34N between
40W-50W. Otherwise...the remainder of the eastern Atlc is under
the influence of a surface ridge with axis extending from the
Azores near 36N24W SW to 20N44W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

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