[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 290841
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182017
500 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

Philippe is a very poorly organized system, and it is a stretch to
call it a tropical cyclone at this time.  The most trackable center
passed near Key West a couple of hours ago and has moved into the
Straits of Florida.  Given that northwesterly winds are now observed
over southeastern Florida, however, it is unlikely that this is a
unique center of circulation.  Therefore, the advisory location
near the southern tip of Florida is more of a mean center position.
Given that, the initial motion is a highly uncertain 070/15 kt.
Regardless of its precise location, the overall system should turn
northeastward to north-northeastward and accelerate considerably
ahead of a high amplitude 500 mb trough near the United States east
coast.

Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated
that the maximum sustained winds were near 40 kt over the Straits
of Florida.  Deep convection has been displaced well to the
northeast of the estimated center by nearly 50 kt of deep-layer
shear.  The shear is forecast to increase even more, and Philippe
is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone within the next 24
hours as it becomes embedded within a cold front that is approaching
from the northwest.  The above-mentioned trough is likely to induce
some baroclinic intensification of the storm today and tonight.  By
Monday, however, the global models show the cyclone becoming
absorbed into a larger and stronger extratropical low near New
England.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 25.0N  81.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 29.2N  77.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 36.0N  72.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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