[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290516
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
116 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Philippe was centered about 17 nm southwest of
Havana Cuba near 24.8N 82.1W at 0300 UTC, moving north-northeast
at 21 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Minimum sea level pressure is 1003 mb. The tropical storm will
continue moving rapidly northward tonight ahead of an approaching
cold front. Scattered moderate to strong convection is east of
the center 19N-28N between 75W-83W. Please see the latest NHC
Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and
the NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 09N20W. The Intertropical
Convergence Zone axis extends from 09N20W to 09N53W. A surface
trough extends from 11N52W to 07N54W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 02N-10N between 18W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of
Campeche with minimal shower activity associated with the front.
Fresh to strong northerly winds and 8-14 ft seas are west of the
front. A complex trough/low pressure system centered in the
southeast Gulf near 25N83W is interacting with T.S. Philippe
located over the Straits of Florida, producing scattered moderate
convection south of 28N E of 83W. The cold front will sweep
across the eastern Gulf through Sunday morning and kick the low
pressure system and T.S. Philippe northeast into the Atlantic.
High pressure building behind the front will prevail across the
basin through Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends south of T.S. Philippe from Havana Cuba
to the NE coast of Honduras. Scattered moderate convection
prevails north of 18N between 76W-83W. This activity will move
out of the region overnight. To the east, a surface trough
extends from the Atlantic through the Mona Passage to near 13N71W
with scattered showers mainly north of 17N. Scattered moderate
convection associated with the EPAC monsoon trough prevails in
the southwest Caribbean south of 11N between 73W-83W. Mostly
cloudy skies and a few showers prevail across the remainder of the
basin. Expect marine conditions to rapidly improve in the west
Caribbean tonight and through Sunday as T.S. Philippe moves
north.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across western Hispaniola. A surface
trough with scattered showers is over the Mona Passage enhancing
convection east of 70W. This trough will move slowly westward and
reach eastern Hispaniola tonight, increasing showers across the
whole island through the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection prevails across the west Atlantic
mainly west of 73W related to T.S. Philippe. To the east, a cold
front extends across the central Atlantic from 31N49W to 25N56W.
Scattered showers are noted along and east of the front. Surface
ridging prevails elsewhere. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico
will cross the Florida peninsula Sunday, and T.S. Philippe will
move rapidly northward ahead of the front with widespread active
convection and gusty winds near the center moving across the
northwest Bahamas by the morning hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net