[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282355
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Philippe was centered about 17 nm southwest of
Havana Cuba near 21.8N 82.4W at 2100 UTC, moving north at 25 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Minimum
sea level pressure is 1005 mb. The tropical storm will continue
moving rapidly northward through the Straits of Florida tonight
ahead of an approaching cold front. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is E and SE of the center 18N-25N between 77W-83W.
Please see the latest NHC Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico extends from the panhandle of
Florida to the Bay of Campeche. A gale warning is effect south
of 21N west of the front for the next six hours. See the latest
NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a low in Africa near 12N12W to
08N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N20W to 05N28W to 06N45W to 09N51W. A surface trough extends
from 13N50W to 06N54W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 04N-10N between 20W-24W. Widely scattered
showers elsewhere within 120 nm of the ITCZ axis.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of
Campeche with minimal shower activity associated with the front.
Fresh to strong northerly winds and 8-14 ft seas are W of the
front. A complex trough/low pressure system centered in the SE
Gulf near 25N84W is interacting with TS Philippe located near
Havana Cuba, producing widespread rain and embedded showers S of
27N E of 84W. The cold front will sweep across the eastern Gulf
through Sunday morning and kick the low pressure system and TS
Philippe NNE into the Atlantic. High pressure building behind
the front will prevail across the basin Sunday and Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends south of TS Philippe from Havana Cuba
to the NE coast of Honduras. The moderate to strong convection
in the NW Caribbean associated with Philippe will move out of
the region overnight. A surface trough extends from the Atlc
through the Mona Passage to near 14N70W with scattered showers E
of the trough in Puerto Rico. Scattered showers associated with
the EPAC monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean supports scattered
moderate convection south of 13N between 76W-83W. Mostly cloudy
skies and a few showers prevail across the remainder of the
basin. Expect marine conditions to rapidly improve in the west
Caribbean tonight and Sunday as TS Philippe moves north.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across western Hispaniola. A surface
trough with isolated showers is in the Mona Passage. This trough
will move slowly westward and reach eastern Hispaniola tonight,
increasing showers across the island Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front in the central Atlantic extends from 31N52W to
25N60W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm E of the
front. Surface ridging prevails across the E Atlantic. A cold
front in the Gulf of Mexico will cross the Florida peninsula
Sunday, and TS Philippe will move rapidly northward ahead of
the front with widespread active convection and gusty winds near
the center moving across the NW Bahamas Sunday morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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