[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
156 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Eighteen is centered near 21.8N 82.4W or
about 69 nm south of Havana Cuba at 1800 UTC, moving north-
northeast at 22 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts
to 40 kt. Minimum sea level pressure is 1005 mb. The depression is
forecast to become a tropical storm on 29/0000 UTC while over the
Straits of Florida. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 18N- 25N between 78W-84W. Scattered moderate
convection is also from 25N- 27N between 81W- 85W. Please see the
latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the full NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

A Gulf of Mexico cold front is from 30.5N87W to 26N92W to 24N94W
to 18.5N95W. A gale is S of 25N W of front with NW to N winds
25-35 kt. Seas are 8-10 ft. Winds are forecast to be below gale on
29/0600 UTC. See the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
09N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
09N20W to 05N30W to 05N43W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 04N-10N between 15W-20W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 04N-07N between 20W-27W. A surface
trough extends from 13N50W to 07N53W. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the trough axis.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle at 30.5N87W to 26N92W
to 24N94W to the Bay of Campeche at 18.5N95W. Scattered showers
are within 90 nm of the front. A gale is S of 25N W of front. See
above. Further E, T.D. Eighteen is producing convection over the
SE Gulf and S Florida. It is forecast to be over the N Bahamas in
24 hours. A tornado warning was just issued for S Florida. Also
expect the cold front to extend from S Florida to the Yucatan
Peninsula with 25 kt N winds over most of the E Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

T.D. Eighteen is over the NW Caribbean quickly approaching W Cuba
with convection.  A surface trough extends across the eastern
Caribbean from the Mona Passage to NW Venezuela at 11N70W with
isolated showers mostly over the northern portion of the trough.
The EPAC monsoon trough extends across Central America supporting
scattered moderate convection south of 12N between 76W-84W. Mostly
cloudy skies and a few showers prevail across the remainder of
the basin. Expect marine conditions to improve in the west
Caribbean by tonight and Sunday as T.D.Eighteen moves north.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across W Hispaniola at this time. A surface
trough is with isolated showers is over the Mona Passage. This
trough will move slowly westward and reach eastern Hispaniola
today, increasing showers across the island through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N53W to 26N62W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm E of the front.
Surface ridging prevails across the E Atlantic. Expect T.D. Eighteen
to bring strong winds and widespread inclement weather to the
Bahamas this weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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