[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270017
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico Friday
evening, then extend from the Florida panhandle to the Bay of
Campeche Saturday. Gale force northerly winds are expected S of
23N W of the front with winds 30-35 kt, and seas 9-12 ft.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
08N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N20W to the coast of South America near 06N57W. Isolated
random convection is associated with the convergence zone.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge, supporting fair weather conditions, extends SW
from a high near Tallahassee Florida to southern Mexico near
Veracruz. Expect the cold front mentioned above to reach the NW
Gulf in about 24 hours with active convection, then push across
the remainder of the basin through Sunday. Fresh to strong N
winds will prevail behind the front this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail of an Atlantic cold front extends from E Cuba to NE
Honduras. A weak low is over northern Nicaragua near 15N82W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 150 nm SE of
the front near Jamaica. Widely scattered moderate convection is
in the SW Caribbean from 09N-15N between 78W-84W. Further east,
a surface trough is over the E Caribbean from 18N63W to 14N65W.
Isolated showers are E of the trough axis. Expect the surface
low near Honduras and Nicaragua to move slowly northward through
Saturday ahead of the next cold front with active convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

A cold front over eastern Cuba will become stationary overnight
then drift back to the NW Friday as an area of low pressure
develops SW of Hispaniola. This will increase the chances for
showers mainly over Haiti, but heavy downpours are expected to
remain west of the island through Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front over the western Atlantic extends from 32N67W to E
Cuba near 21N76W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm
east of the front. The northern part of the front will weaken in
the central Atlantic Friday, while the southern part stalls and
drifts NW through Saturday. A weak cold front over the eastern
Atlantic extends from 32N22W to 25N29W, becoming a shear line
westward to 21N49W. Isolated showers are within 60 nm of the
front. A surface trough is analyzed south of 12N along 41W in
the central Atlantic. It will drift westward through Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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