[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252248
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
648 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2215 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N15W to
09N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
09N22W to 08N34W to 08N46W to 05N52W. Isolated moderate convection
is from 06N-09N between 14W-20W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 02N-15N between 31W-44W...and from 08N-17N between 44W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front now fully east of the basin continues to provide a
few lingering isolated showers across the Florida Straits and SE
Gulf this evening S of 25N E of 84W. Otherwise...a surface ridge
influences the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1027 mb high
centered across NE Mexico near 24N100W. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds prevail this evening as the high moves E-NE
towards the Florida Big Bend region through Thursday afternoon.
By Thursday night...moderate to fresh southerly return flow will
have re-established itself across the NW Gulf waters as the next
cold front pushes southward across the southern Great Plains. The
cold front is forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana
coasts Friday afternoon ushering in another round of fresh to
strong northerly winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A middle to upper level trough noted on water vapor imagery over
the far eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula is supportive
of a cold front analyzed across western Cuba near 23N81W into the
NW Caribbean to the coast of Honduras near 16N87W. A pre-frontal
surface trough extends from the cold front near 22N80W southward
into a 1007 mb low centered along the coast of Nicaragua near
14N83W. Scattered scattered and tstms are occurring across a large
portion of the western Caribbean and Central America W of 76W.
Strongest convection currently is noted across the SW Caribbean
and in the vicinity of the surface low from 10N-14N between 78W-
88W. Farther east...northerly flow aloft between ridging over the
western Caribbean and an upper level low centered over the NE
Caribbean near 13N63W is providing overall fair conditions and
mostly clear skies this evening between 63W-75W. To the east of
the Lesser Antilles...surface troughing extends from 08N61W across
Barbados to 17N57W and continues to provide focus for scattered
showers and tstms primarily east of the Caribbean basin from
09N-18N between 53W-59W. The convection continues to be enhanced
due to favorable divergence aloft on the eastern periphery of the
upper level low.

...HISPANIOLA...
Dry air aloft within northerly flow will support fair weather
across the island through Thursday. Moderate trades are expected
to persist.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough extends over the eastern CONUS from
over the New England states S-SW over the Carolinas and Florida
peninsula to a base over the SE Gulf of Mexico. The troughing
supports a cold front extending from 32N74W to the NW Bahamas to
the coast of western Cuba near 23N80W and into the NW Caribbean
Sea. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring within 210 nm east
of the front N of 26N and within 150 nm either side of the front S
of 26N. Generally moderate to fresh NW winds are occurring in wake
of the front this evening as it is forecast to move east and
gradually weaken across the central Atlc by Friday night. Farther
east...an upper level low is centered near 29N58W and supports a
surface trough analyzed from 26N60W to 28N56W generating scattered
showers and isolated tstms from 24N-30N between 47W-59W. This area
remains on the southern periphery of a surface ridge anchored by a
1031 mb high centered north of the area near 39N57W. Finally...an
upper level trough is over the eastern North Atlc supporting a
gale force 998 mb low centered near 41N32W. The associated cold
front extends into the discussion area near 32N27W SW to 25N37W to
24N45W. Isolated showers are possible within 75 nm either side of
the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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