[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front is currently analyzed across the Gulf waters from
29N83W SW to 24N87W where it becomes stationary continuing SW to
the Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. Near gale to gale force NW to N
winds are occurring S of 21N W of 95W. The gale force winds are
expected to be short lived as the pressure gradient weakens during
the overnight hours. The wind field will once again increase into
near gale to gale force conditions Tuesday afternoon as the cold
front pushes through the SW Gulf waters. Please see the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles with axis extending
from 18N57W to 06N57W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a region
of strong vertical wind shear. However, shallow moisture and an
upper trough in the W Atlc with base reaching Suriname support scattered
moderate convection from 09N-19N between 50W-61W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N16W to
11N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
11N20W to 06N35W to 05N52W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is from
05N-13N between 22W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A vigorous broad middle to upper level trough progressing
eastward over the E CONUS continue to support a cold front
extending from 29N83W SW to 24N87W where it becomes stationary
continuing SW to the Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. Middle level
diffluent flow across the southern half of the basin along with
shallow moisture ahead of the front support scattered showers and
tstms over the Bay of Campeche and between the stationary front
and the Yucatan Peninsula. Otherwise, a surface ridge anchored by
a 1019 mb high centered off the coast of Texas near 28N95W
tightens the pressure gradient supporting near to gale force winds
in the SW Gulf ahead of the front and fresh to strong winds S of
22N W of 94W. Moderate NNE winds are elsewhere W of the front. The
ridge will continue to gradually build southeastward through
early today. A secondary reinforcing cold front, currently across
Arkansas and portions of western Texas, is expected to enter the
NW basin today increasing the northerly winds across much of the
basin into Wednesday. Strong high pressure in wake of the front
will build in across New Mexico and Texas...and into the western
Gulf Wednesday night into Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered over the
NW Caribbean near 16N83W and continues to provide an overall
divergent environment aloft that supports scattered showers and
tstms in the vicinity of a 1008 mb low over NE Nicaragua adjacent
waters and the W Caribbean S of 21N W of 75W. Strong high pressure
N of the area supports fresh to strong winds in the south-central
basin S of 15N between 68W-75W. Otherwise, a tropical wave E of the
Lesser Antilles will cross the Islands later this morning with
showers. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will move across the
Yucatan channel into the NW Caribbean Wed morning followed by
northerly fresh to strong winds.

...HISPANIOLA...

Dry air aloft within northerly flow will support fair weather
across the island today continuing through Wednesday along with moderate
to fresh trades.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and tstms are in the far NW forecast waters N of
27N W of 75W ahead of a cold front forecast to enter this region
later this morning. The front will move SE across the Bahamas
through Thu morning along with fresh to strong winds. The front
then will stall before dissipating Friday. Farther east, an upper
level low supports a surface trough extending from 25N58W to
21N58W with scattered heavy showers and tstms occurring from 22N-
28N between 52W-63W. This area lies SW of a cold front extending
into the discussion area near 30N38W SW to 27N46W. Surface ridging
dominates elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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