[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

High pressure building behind a cold front moving off the Texas
coast Sunday night will tighten the pressure gradient along the
Veracruz coast of Mexico, and induce gale force winds south of
20N west of 95W from Monday through Tuesday.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the western Atlantic is analyzed along 51W,
but based on long term satellite animation, will be relocated
further east along 47W at 0600 UTC. The wave is moving west at
10 kt, embedded in an area moderate moisture as seen on SSMI TPW
imagery, and troughing at 700 mb. Scattered showers are from 10N-
16N between 45W-50W.

A tropical wave in the western Caribbean extending from 21N85W
to 10N83W is moving W at 15 kt. The wave is embedded in deep
moisture with a well defined surface trough, and broad troughing
at 700 mb. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from
15N-20N between 81W-88W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough is near the African coast from 10N14W to
08N18W. The ITCZ extends from 08N18W to 07N34W to 08N58W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-13N between 32W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the NE Gulf. Widespread showers
across the eastern Gulf are being enhanced by divergent upper
level winds. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf tonight, and a
tropical wave will move across the Yucatan peninsula through
Monday. Strong northerly winds are expected behind the cold
front Monday and Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave over the Gulf of Honduras will move across
Central America Monday. The eastern extent of the E Pacific
monsoon trough over Costa Rica and Panama is producing scattered
moderate convection S of 11N. A large upper level anticyclone is
centered near 17N80W with extensive moisture. Strong subsidence
is over the E Caribbean E of 75W. Saharan Airmass Layer Imagery
also shows a plume of dry air and dust over the E Caribbean E of
67W. Expect continued fair weather over most of the basin during
the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails over Hispaniola except for high level
clouds. Expect little change during the next 24 hours as
relatively dry subsident air remains in place over the island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N52W to
25N63W. Diffluence east of an upper low centered near 29N66W is
enhancing scattered showers associated with the front. High
pressure is north of 30N on either side of the front, in the
eastern Atlantic and over the eastern U.S. An upper level low
centered near 23N43W is producing scattered showers east of the
low due to upper level diffluence.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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