[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KMOB 080059
HLSMOB
ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-080900-

Hurricane Nate Local Statement Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
National Weather Service Mobile AL  AL162017
759 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017

This product covers portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.

...NATE CURRENTLY CLOSING IN ON THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER REGION...

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, Baldwin Inland, Mobile
      Central, Mobile Coastal, and Mobile Inland
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for George, Greene, Perry,
      Stone, and Washington
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Escambia Inland, Okaloosa Inland, and Santa Rosa Inland
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Butler, Choctaw,
      Clarke, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw, Escambia, Monroe, Wayne,
      and Wilcox
    - A Storm Surge Warning, Tropical Storm Warning, and Hurricane
      Watch are in effect for Escambia Coastal, Okaloosa Coastal, and
      Santa Rosa Coastal

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 130 miles south-southwest of Mobile AL or about 160 miles
      southwest of Pensacola FL
    - 29.0N 89.2W
    - Storm Intensity 85 mph
    - Movement North or 350 degrees at 20 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Over the last few hours Hurricane Nate continues to move rapidly towards the
Mississippi-Alabama Border region. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph. Since
dark, the region has come under the influence of Nate's detached outer rainbands,
but now, additional outer rainbands with more continuous rainfall and abruptly higher
wind gusts will move into the area from the south. By midnight, the storm should be
inland. Through midnight winds will increase to hurricane forecast along coastal
areas and there are indications that the storm surge is just 1-2 hours away from
becoming abrupt. As evidence, waves increased abruptly to between 25-30 feet as reported
by Buoy 42040 during the past 1-2 hours. This is an indication of the arrival of the storm
surge being that is being pushed along ahead of Nate. Area NOAA Ports tide gages have
also risen abruptly ahead of the main storm surge push. Forecast inundation values of
6 to 9 feet around the Mobile Bay region and Alabama barrier islands are still forecast.
Lesser, but still significant inundation,of 4 to 6 feet is forecast further east across
the western Florida Panhandle. Widespread power outages will develop from this point
forward, in a north to south manner, as Nate approaches. There have also been observed
tornadoes and a large part of the area is now under a Tornado Watch until 2 AM CDT. Please
do not underestimate the tornado potential with this event, especially through Midnight.
Our area will remain classically located in a favorable region for tornado production with
respect to Nate's center. Nate will also bring the potential for heavy rainfall overnight
with  4 to 6" of rainfall, isolated totals as high as 8" (especially along and west of I-65),
forecast.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive
impacts along the Alabama and northwest Florida coastline.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
      accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
      with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
      debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
      washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
      barriers may become stressed.
    - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
    - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
      small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.

Storm surge inundation impacts are forecast to be 6 to 9 feet across southwest
Alabama. Storm surge inundation impacts are forecast to be 4 to 6 feet across
the western Florida Panhandle.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts roughly along and west of I-65 and areas closer to the coast.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts to the east of I-65 and further inland.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.. Potential
impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across portions of southwest Alabama, northwest Florida,
south-central Alabama and inland southeast Mississippi.
Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Do not return to evacuated areas until hazardous winds diminish and flood waters abate.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Preparation should have been brought to an end.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For the latest detailed evacuation and shelter information...please
refer to your local emergency management agency at the phone number
or website listed below.
- Coastal Alabama:
- Baldwin County: 251-972-6807 or
www.baldwincountyal.gov/departments/EMA
- Mobile County: 251-460-8000 or www.mcema.net
- Northwest Florida:
- Escambia County: 850-471-6400 or bereadyescambia.com
- Santa Rosa County: 850-983-5360 www.santarosa.fl.gov/emergency
- Okaloosa County: 850-651-7150 or www.co.okaloosa.fl.us/ps/home
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Mobile AL around 1030 PM, or sooner if conditions warrant.

/23 Medlin

$$
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