[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement
EMWIN Server
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sat Oct 7 05:34:50 CDT 2017
WTUS84 KMOB 071034
HLSMOB
ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-071845-
Hurricane Nate Local Statement Advisory Number 12
National Weather Service Mobile AL AL162017
534 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017
This product covers portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.
...HURRICANE NATE IS MOVING QUICKLY NORTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, Baldwin Inland, Mobile
Central, Mobile Coastal, and Mobile Inland
- A Storm Surge Warning, Tropical Storm Warning, and Hurricane
Watch are in effect for Escambia Coastal, Okaloosa Coastal, and
Santa Rosa Coastal
- A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
Escambia Inland, Okaloosa Inland, and Santa Rosa Inland
- A Hurricane Warning is in effect for George and Stone
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Butler, Choctaw,
Clarke, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw, Escambia, Greene, Monroe,
Perry, Washington, Wayne, and Wilcox
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 430 miles south of Mobile AL or about 410 miles south of
Pensacola FL
- 24.5N 87.0W
- Storm Intensity 80 mph
- Movement North-northwest or 340 degrees at 22 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
Hurricane Nate is maintaining maximum sustained winds of 80 mph.
Hurricane Nate will continue moving northward towards the north
central Gulf coast region today and brings a quick hit to our area
tonight into Sunday. Nate's impacts will likely be quite significant.
Impacts include storm surge inundation, wind, rainfall and tornadoes.
Winds will abruptly increase this evening into Sunday morning. At
least some power outages, possibly widespread near where Nate's center
passes, are likely across the region by early Sunday morning. The
highest winds will generally be west of I-65 and closer to the coast.
Storm surge inundation of 5 to 9 feet, possibly as high as 10 feet, is
forecast around the Mobile Bay region and Alabama barrier islands.
Storm surge inundation of 2 to 5 feet, possibly as high as 6 feet, are
forecast across the western Florida Panhandle. Local water rises could
be sudden and recession slow in the two days following Nate's passage.
Nate will also bring the potential for heavy rainfall to the area with
3 to 6" of rainfall with totals as high as 8" (especially along and
west of I-65) beginning late this morning and continuing through Sunday.
Tornadoes will also be possible beginning this afternoon and continuing
into Sunday. Please do not underestimate the tornado potential with this
event. Our area is classically located in a favorable region for tornado
production with respect to Nate's center. Tropical related tornadoes
often spin up quickly and strike with little or no warning.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive
impacts across the Mobile Bay region and Mobile and Baldwin County
barrier islands. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
barriers may become stressed.
- Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
- Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.
Storm surge inundation impacts are forecast to be 5 to 9 feet and
possibly up to 10 feet across southwest Alabama. Storm surge inundation
impacts are forecast to be 3 to 5 feet and possibly up to 6 feet across
the western Florida Panhandle. The main thing here is to continue to
watch the trends as the forecast changes.
* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
roughly along and west of I-65 and closer to the coast, especially
close to where Nate's center tracks. Potential impacts in this area
include:
- Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
uninhabitable for weeks.
- Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places.
- Large areas with power and communications outages.
Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
further east of I-65 and further inland.
* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest
Florida...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi..
Potential impacts include:
- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen
and overflow in spots.
- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
closures.
* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.. Potential
impacts include:
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
pulled from moorings.
* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
A high rip current risk will persist leading up to Nate and a few days
after passage due to northward moving swell energy that will keep the
risk very elevated. Please do not go in the water immediately after
Nate's passage!
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
If you are exceptionally vulnerable to wind or water hazards from
tropical systems, consider voluntary evacuation, especially if being
officially recommended. Relocate to a predetermined shelter or safe
destination.
If evacuating away from the area or relocating to a nearby shelter,
leave early before weather conditions become hazardous.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Outside preparations should be wrapped up as soon as possible before
weather conditions completely deteriorate. Any remaining evacuations
and relocations should be expedited before the onset of tropical
storm force wind.
Keep cell phones well charged and handy. Also, cell phone chargers
for automobiles can be helpful after the storm. Locate your chargers
and keep them with your cell phone.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For the latest detailed evacuation and shelter information...please
refer to your local emergency management agency at the phone number
or website listed below.
- Coastal Alabama:
- Baldwin County: 251-972-6807 or
www.baldwincountyal.gov/departments/EMA
- Mobile County: 251-460-8000 or www.mcema.net
- Northwest Florida:
- Escambia County: 850-471-6400 or bereadyescambia.com
- Santa Rosa County: 850-983-5360 www.santarosa.fl.gov/emergency
- Okaloosa County: 850-651-7150 or www.co.okaloosa.fl.us/ps/home
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Mobile AL around 8 AM CDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.
$$
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