[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement
EMWIN Server
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sat Oct 7 02:09:54 CDT 2017
WTUS84 KMOB 070709
HLSMOB
ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-071515-
Hurricane Nate Local Statement Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
National Weather Service Mobile AL AL162017
209 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017
This product covers portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.
...HURRICANE NATE IS MOVING QUICKLY NORTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, Baldwin Inland, Mobile
Central, Mobile Coastal, and Mobile Inland
- A Storm Surge Warning, Tropical Storm Warning, and Hurricane
Watch are in effect for Escambia Coastal, Okaloosa Coastal, and
Santa Rosa Coastal
- A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
Escambia Inland, Okaloosa Inland, and Santa Rosa Inland
- A Hurricane Warning is in effect for George and Stone
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Butler, Choctaw,
Clarke, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw, Escambia, Greene, Monroe,
Perry, Washington, Wayne, and Wilcox
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 510 miles south-southeast of Mobile AL or about 480 miles
south of Pensacola FL
- 23.5N 86.5W
- Storm Intensity 80 mph
- Movement North-northwest or 340 degrees at 22 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
Hurricane Nate maximum sustained winds have strengthened slightly to
80 mph. Hurricane Nate will continue moving northward towards the
north central Gulf coast region through late Saturday and brings a
quick hit to our area Saturday night and Sunday. Nate's impacts will
likely be quite significant. Impacts include storm surge inundation,
wind, rainfall and tornadoes. Winds will abruptly increase Saturday
night then conditions improve Sunday afternoon. At least some power
outages, possibly widespread near where Nate's center passes, are
likely across the region by early Sunday morning. The highest winds
will generally be west of I-65 and closer to the coast. Storm surge
inundation of 3 to 6 feet, possibly as high as 9 feet, is forecast
around the Mobile Bay region and Alabama barrier islands. Lesser
amounts of storm surge inundation of 2 to 4 feet, possibly up to 5 to
6 feet, are forecast further eastward across the western Florida
Panhandle. Local water rises could be sudden and recession slow in the
two days following Nate's passage. Nate will also bring the potential
for heavy rainfall to the area with 3 to 6" of rainfall with totals as
high as 8" (especially along and west of I-65) beginning on Saturday
and continuing through very late Sunday. Tornadoes will also be
possible beginning Saturday and continuing into Sunday. Please do not
underestimate the tornado potential with this event. Our area is
classically located in a favorable region for tornado production with
respect to Nate's center. Tropical related tornadoes often spin up
quickly and strike with little or no warning.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive
impacts across the Mobile Bay region and Mobile and Baldwin County
barrier islands. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
barriers may become stressed.
- Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
- Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.
Storm surge inundation impacts are forecast to be 5 to 8 feet and
possibly up to 9 feet across southwest Alabama. Storm surge inundation
impacts are forecast to be 4 to 6 feet and possibly up to 7 feet
across the western Florida Panhandle. The main thing here is to
continue to watch the trends as the forecast changes.
* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
roughly along and west of I-65 and closer to the coast, especially
close to where Nate's center tracks. Potential impacts in this area
include:
- Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
uninhabitable for weeks.
- Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places.
- Large areas with power and communications outages.
Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
further east of I-65 and further inland.
* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against locally hazardous flooding having possible limited
impacts for most of the area. Potential impacts include:
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.
* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.. Potential
impacts include:
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
pulled from moorings.
* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
A high rip current risk will persist leading up to Nate and a few days
after passage due to northward moving swell energy that will keep the
risk very elevated. Please do not go in the water immediately after
Nate's passage!
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
WATCH/WARNING PHASE - If evacuating the area, stick to prescribed
evacuation routes. Look for additional traffic information on roadway
smart signs and listen to select radio channels for further travel
instructions. Drivers should not use cell phones while operating
vehicles.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to bring to completion all preparations to protect
life and property in accordance with your emergency plan.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For the latest detailed evacuation and shelter information...please
refer to your local emergency management agency at the phone number
or website listed below.
- Coastal Alabama:
- Baldwin County: 251-972-6807 or
www.baldwincountyal.gov/departments/EMA
- Mobile County: 251-460-8000 or www.mcema.net
- Northwest Florida:
- Escambia County: 850-471-6400 or bereadyescambia.com
- Santa Rosa County: 850-983-5360 www.santarosa.fl.gov/emergency
- Okaloosa County: 850-651-7150 or www.co.okaloosa.fl.us/ps/home
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Mobile AL around 5 AM CDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.
$$
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net
More information about the Tropical
mailing list