[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042330
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Sixteen is centered near 12.5N 82.5W at
04/2100 UTC or about 48 nm W of San Andres Island or about 156 nm
SSE of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua and Honduras border,
moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 09N-16N
between 78W-87W. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full
Advisory/Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 18N40W to 09N43W moving W at 15-20
kt. The wave coincides with subtle troughing at 700 mb. Satellite
TPW imagery indicates this wave is embedded in an area of deep-
layer moisture. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N-17N
between 36W-40W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 180 nm of
the wave axis.

A tropical wave extends from 23N64W to 10N66W moving W at 15-20
kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 59W-
68W and continues to interact with an upper-level low centered
near 17N64W. Divergent upper-level winds on the east side of the
upper level low are supporting scattered moderate convection from
16N-24N between 57W-65W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
10N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
10N20W to 08N30W to 10N41W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave
at 10N44W and continues to 09N56W. Besides the convection
associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection
is from 04N-10N between 24W-39W, and from 12N-16N between 46W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 mb high is centered over Tennessee near 36N85W producing
surface ridging over the Gulf of Mexico. Mostly fair weather is
over the Gulf. The surface pressure gradient is fairly tight and
20-25 easterly winds are N of 22N. A surface trough extends from
the N Bahamas to central Cuba producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over S Florida. In the upper levels, an upper level
high is centered over the S Texas near 29N100W. A small upper
level low is centered over the Straits of Florida near 24N82W.
Expect the surface trough, and the upper level low to both move W
into the SE Gulf over the next 24 hours with convection.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Primary focus remains across SW Caribbean as Tropical Depression
Sixteen tracks NW. In addition, an upper level trough over
Central America is generating scattered showers and tstms across
the western Caribbean W of 73W. Otherwise...farther east...another
tropical wave is analyzed along 64W/66W and continues to generate
scattered showers and tstms across the Lesser Antilles and E
Caribbean waters east of the wave axis. The wave will move across
the central through Thursday night. Finally outside of Tropical
Depression Sixteen...moderate to occasional fresh trades persist.

...HISPANIOLA...

Currently scattered showers are over Hispaniola. A tropical wave
is E of the island. Expect convection associated with the
tropical wave to reach the Dominican Republic in 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The surface pressure gradient is tight over the W Atlantic N of
20N and W of 70W producing 25-30 kt easterly winds. in addition,
a surface trough extends from 27N73W to the N Bahamas near 25N78W
to central Cuba near 22N80W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is within 240 nm E of the trough axis. Isolated
moderate convection is within 180 nm W of the trough. Although
significant tropical development of this system is still not
expected due to strong upper-level winds, brief squalls will
likely produce locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds over
portions of the Bahamas and the southern Florida peninsula during
the next couple of days. Elsewhere, the tail end of a cold front
is over the central Atlantic from 31N43W to 27N50W. A stationary
front continues to 26N62W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is within 120 nm of the fronts. Broad surface ridging extends SW
from a 1028 mb surface high centered over the E Atlantic near
46N15W. Surface ridging dominates the Atlantic N of 22N and E of
35W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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