[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041038
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 mb low in the SW Caribbean centered near 11.5N81W is
showing signs of organization. Clusters of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection are within 90 nm of the low center.
Environmental conditions are favorable for development, and this
system is expected to become a tropical depression within the
next two days. The disturbance should move north-northwest into
the NW Caribbean Sea then reach the southern Gulf of Mexico by
this weekend. This system will likely produce heavy rains over
portions of Central America during the next few days. There is a
high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours.

A gale warning is in effect for the western Atlantic north of
the Bahamas from 25N-30N between 71W-81W. Scatterometer data
shows a large area of 20-30 kt winds east of Florida. Expect
frequent gusts to 35 kt today due to a tight pressure gradient.

A gale warning is also in effect west of Florida in the NE Gulf
of Mexico from 26N-29N between 83W-89W. Scatterometer data shows
a large area of 20-30 kt winds west of Florida. Expect frequent
gusts to 35 kt today due to a tight pressure gradient.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic extends from 17N37W to
08N40W moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave remains low amplitude and
coincides with modest troughing at 700 mb. Satellite TPW imagery
indicates this wave is embedded in an area of deep moisture.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 10N-15N
between 35W-45W.

The axis of a tropical wave in the E Caribbean extending into
the Atlantic is from 24N63W to 10N64W moving W at 10-15 kt. The
wave coincides with broad troughing aloft. Divergent upper-level
winds on the east side of the trough are supporting widely
scattered moderate convection over the Atlantic from 11N-21N
between 57W-62W.

The axis of a tropical wave in the W Caribbean extending into
the Gulf of Mexico is from 25N82W to 11N84W moving W at 10-15
kt. The northern part of the wave coincides with an upper level
trough over Florida. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is from 16N-26N between 74W-81W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough is along the African coast between 16W-18W.
The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 09N18W to
08N49W to 11N60W. Besides the convection associated with the
tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is along the coast of W Africa from 09N-13N between 40W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A gale warning is in effect for the NE Gulf. See above. A tight
pressure gradient with 20-30 kt winds will persist during the
next 24 hours. A surface trough is over the SW Gulf of Mexico
along 93W south of 23N. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is S of 21N W of 95W. The surface trough is expected to persist
over the Bay of Campeche with convection through Wed. An upper
level anticyclone is centered over southern Texas near 27N98W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A low in the SW Caribbean has a high chance of tropical cyclone
development. Two tropical waves are moving through the region.
See above. Isolated convection and moderate to fresh trade winds
prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

Hispaniola is between tropical waves. Skies are expected to
remain partly cloudy today, with some passing showers mainly
over the southern part of the island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A gale warning is in effect east of Florida. See above. A cold
front extends from 32N45W to 26N57W, becoming stationary and
weakening along 26N between 57W-75W. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms are within 120 nm of the front. A broad surface
ridge extending SW from a surface high centered NE of the Azores
near 41N24W dominates the Atlantic N of 20N and E of 45W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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