[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010502
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
102 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
An elongated area of low pressure is noted across the SW North
Atlc waters focused on a 1015 mb low centered near 31N73W with
surface trough extending W-SW into a 1012 mb low centered near
Daytona Beach Florida. A strengthened pressure gradient N of the
surface trough boundary is generating strong to near gale force
NE winds with gusts to gale force. The gradient is forecast to
relax within 24 hours. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

A tropical wave extends from 10N72W to 24N68W moving W at 5-10
kt. An upper level low is centered nearly over the wave axis near
19N71W and continues interacting favorably with the wave
producing scattered moderate convection from 15N-24N between 63W-
71W...including the US/UK Virgin Islands...Puerto Rico...and
portions of Hispaniola. The upper level low will retrograde
westward through Sunday and remain in a favorable position to
produce active convection across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola
through Monday.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 06N43W to 19N44W moving W at 15-20
kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing 39W-47W and
continues moving beneath the influence of an upper level low
centered near 17N45W. Given these features at all levels...widely
scattered moderate convection is occurring from 10N-18N between
38W-47W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
07N18W to 07N25W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from
07N25W to 07N43W to 07N54W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is from 05N-12N between 11W-17W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 04N-14N between 28W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A broad area of lower surface pressure is analyzed across the
entire Gulf this evening focused primarily around an upper level
low centered near 24N87W. While large-scale moderate cyclonic
surface winds prevail...a few surface troughs analyzed across the
basin highlight the areas of active convection and precipitation.
The first surface trough extends from a 1012 mb low centered in
the vicinity of Daytona Beach Florida to the Tampa Bay region and
into the SE Gulf near 25N85W. Moisture and cloudiness advected
northward by the upper level low and the weak surface troughing
are generating scattered showers and isolated tstms E of 88W...
including portions of the northern Florida peninsula this evening.
Another surface trough is analyzed along the Mexico coast from
25N98W to 21N97W to 18N94W providing focus for scattered showers
and isolated tstms S of 26N W of 94W. Looking ahead...surface
ridging will begin to build across the SE CONUS by early Monday
strengthening the pressure gradient and increasing E-SE winds
across much of the NE Gulf. By Monday night areal coverage of this
wind field is expected to influence the northern two-thirds of
the basin as fresh to strong E-NE winds will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Active convection will continue with the tropical wave moving
across the central Caribbean as an upper level low noted on water
vapor imagery over Hispaniola moves W and generally in tandem
with the wave during the next 24 hours. Scattered showers and
tstms are occurring N of 15N between 64W-72W. Similar convection
is occurring W of the tropical wave and within an area of upper
level divergence in the vicinity of Jamaica from 12N-19N between
72W-80W. Elsewhere...an upper level low centered over the SE Gulf
of Mexico is generating scattered showers and strong tstms across
the NW Caribbean and portions of Central America N of 14N W of
80W. This activity spreads westward across Guatemala and southern
Mexico...including the adjacent East Pacific coastal waters.
Otherwise...gentle to moderate E-SE trades will persist through
Sunday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Currently the island falls under the influence of an upper level
low centered near 19N71W and a tropical wave moving beneath the
upper level feature. The upper level low will continue moving
westward with the tropical wave and continue to generate scattered
showers and tstms across the region through Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Outside of the influence of the strengthened pressure gradient
across the far NW portion of the SW North Atlc area generating the
frequent gale force gusts...a cold front extends from the remnants
of Maria through 34N50W to 31N65W then becomes stationary into a
1015 mb low centered near 31N73W. Isolated showers are possible
within 120 nm either side of the cold front...with scattered
showers and isolated tstms occurring elsewhere N of 27N W of 68W
in association with the elongated area of low pressure as
mentioned in the Special Features section. Elsewhere...surface
ridging prevails across much of the remainder of the central and
eastern Atlc anchored by 1028 mb high centered E of the Azores
near 39N21W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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