[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010532
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1231 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from Sierra Leone
on the African coast near 07N12W to 06N16W to 07N25W to 06N33W to
06N41W to the coast of South America near 04N51W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 06N to
10N between 23W and 33W and from 07N to 09N between 36W and 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
As of 20/2100 UTC...a cold front extends from southern
Mississippi near 30N89W SW to 27N92W then curves westward to the
Texas coast S of Corpus Christi near 27.5N97W. Isolated showers
are found within 45 nm either side of the front east of 92W. A
surface trough extends SE from the front near 27.5N92W to the NE
coast of the Yucatan peninsula near 21N87W. Isolated showers are
occurring within 90 nm either side of the boundary. Otherwise...
relatively dry and stable conditions prevail aloft as a broad mid
to upper level ridge maintains subsident flow over much of Mexico
and all but the western Gulf. Precipitation with the front and
troughing is expected to remain shallow with generally gentle to
moderate E-NE winds E of the surface trough and gentle to moderate
N-NE winds W of the surface trough. The cold front will be slow
to move through Friday night and become nearly stationary across
the NW Gulf Friday as the surface trough drifts westward and
weakens. Thereafter...the southern periphery of a surface ridge
anchored over the eastern CONUS will provide gentle to moderate
E-SE winds through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WNW flow aloft prevails over much of the basin this evening on
the northern periphery of an upper level anticyclonic circulation
centered near the Gulf of Panama. Generally dry air aloft and
overall stable conditions are noted across the central and NE
Caribbean. A surface trough extends from 19N87W to 17N85W to
14N82W. Isolated showers are occurring S of 17N and W of 83W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms observed over the SW
Caribbean S of 11N in the vicinity of the monsoon trough which
crosses the SW Caribbean from 10N75W to 10N83W. Farther
east...the only other area of note is a surface trough analyzed
across the SE Caribbean from 10N65W to 15N61W. Isolated showers are
occurring over the SE Caribbean S of 14N and east of 65W near the
Windward Islands. Otherwise...gentle to moderate trades will
persist E of 80W through Saturday...with slightly stronger NE
winds anticipated across the NW Caribbean near the coast of
Colombia and S of Cuba on Sat and Sun as high pressure builds
southward across the Florida peninsula and SW North Atlc region.

...HISPANIOLA...
Generally clear skies and fair weather conditions prevail across
the island as dry NW flow aloft remains in place over the area.
Little change is expected through Friday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A mid to upper level shortwave trough is noted over the SW North
Atlc from 32N66W to 23N67W that supports a 1012 mb low centered
near 26N66W. A surface trough extends SW from the low to the
SE coast of Cuba near 21N75W and a stationary front extends
ESE from the low to 24N52W. An extensive area of scattered
showers and widely scattered tstms spans from 24N to 29N between
50W and 68W...with most activity focused along and N of the
stationary front. The low is forecast to move ENE through
Saturday into the central Atlc and deepen N of the discussion area
between 35W and 55W Sunday and Monday. Otherwise...the remainder
of the SW North Atlc remains under relatively quiet conditions
with the exception of a surface trough extending off the coast of
the Carolinas near 32N76W SW into the waters off the coast of
Florida near 28N80W. Isolated showers are occurring N of 29N
between 75W and 78W. Farther east...deep layer low pressure is
centered over the central North Atlc near 36N34W. The associated
cold front enters the discussion area near 32N27W then SW to
26N31W to 23N40W. To the east...a surface ridge influences much
of the eastern Atlc anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near
25N20W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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