[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
101 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 09N18W. The ITCZ continues from 09N18W to 07N26W,
and 07N41W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are from 03N to 10N southward between 20W and
41W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level NW wind flow is moving across the Gulf of Mexico.

SE wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb is moving through the SE and
central sections of the area. Upper level W wind flow is present
in this same area. A surface trough extends from 26N92W to 24N89W,
beyond the Yucatan Channel. Precipitation: rainshowers are
possible from 27N southward between 84W and 94W, and along the
Mexico coast from 20N to 25N.

A surface trough passes through S central coastal Louisiana, to
25N96W, in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible from 27N northward to the coast between
90W and 94W.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none. IFR: KVQT. MVFR: KEHC.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOUISIANA: MVFR/IFR and light rain/drizzle in parts of the SE part
of the state. This is happening to the east of the surface trough
that extends into the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
MISSISSIPPI: IFR/MVFR in S parts of the state, to the east of the
surface trough.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. An upper
level ridge extends from NW Colombia/Panama to the Yucatan
Peninsula. An inverted trough covers the Caribbean Sea from 400
mb to 800 mb, underneath the upper level anticyclonic wind flow.

A surface trough extends from the NE corner of the Yucatan
Peninsula near 22N87W, to 18N86W and 14N82W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate in the Yucatan Channel. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 16N to 17N between 83W and 87W
off the coast of Honduras. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from
12N northward from 80W westward.

The Monsoon Trough is along 10N74W 11N76W beyond the Costa
Rica/Panama border, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong from the Monsoon Trough to 11N
between 78W and 80W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 11N
southward from 76W westward.

A surface trough is in the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea, 15N60W
12N62W 10N63W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
is from 10N to 14N between 60W and 64W.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the area. An upper level
ridge extends from NW Colombia/Panama to the Yucatan Peninsula.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...VFR for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, and at
the observation sites in the Dominican Republic.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will
continue across Hispaniola for the next 48 hours. A ridge will
extend from NW Colombia, along Central America, to the Yucatan
Peninsula. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that
cyclonic wind flow, W-to-NW, will be on top of Hispaniola for the
next two days, with a broad trough. The GFS MODEL forecast for
700 mb shows that day one will start with an inverted trough
moving across the W parts of Hispaniola. The rest of the 48-hour
forecast period will consist of Hispaniola being nearly in a col
point, in the middle of anticyclonic wind flow to the east of it,
and anticyclonic wind flow to the west of it.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level to upper level trough passes through 32N68W to
26N69W to 24N70W to SE Cuba. A stationary front extends from
27N64W to a 1013 mb low pressure center that is near 27N69W. A
surface trough continues from the 1013 mb low pressure center, to
the Windward Passage. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 22N to 26N between 63W and 68W. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and other possible rainshowers are
elsewhere from 17N northward between 54W and 80W.

An upper level trough passes through 32N33W to 24N40W, 13N47W,
and 07N57W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers from 10N to 14N between 52W and 60W. The trough is
supporting a cold front that curves through 32N32W to 28N35W
25N45W and 28N55W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong from 29N northward between 22W and 31W. Rainshowers are
possible elsewhere from 22N northward between 20W and 50W.

A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 25N22W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 16N northward
from 30W eastward.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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