[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292304
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
604 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2215 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
10N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
10N19W to 05N34W to 02N45W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 03N-08N between 28W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Relatively broad middle to upper level ridging is over much of
the Gulf basin this evening with a middle to upper level shortwave
trough progressing eastward over the Ohio River valley. A 1019 mb
low is centered across SE Oklahoma with the associated cold front
extending southward to near Galveston Bay then to the Texas coast
near Corpus Christi. The front continues to dissipate as the mid-
level energy progresses eastward. A surface trough extends from
the cold front near 30N94W S-SE to the northern coast of the
Yucatan peninsula near 22N89W. While water vapor imagery indicates
very dry conditions aloft...shallow low-level moisture in the
vicinity of the trough is supporting isolated showers within 90 nm
either side of the boundary and S of 26N between 87W-90W.
Otherwise...moderate E winds prevail east of the surface trough
and generally gentle to moderate N winds prevail W of the surface
trough. The trough is forecast become diffuse by early Sunday
with ridging anchored across the eastern CONUS influencing the
basin with gentle to moderate E-SE winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
West-northwesterly flow aloft prevails over much of the basin this
evening on the northern periphery of an upper level anticyclonic
circulation anchored in the East Pacific waters S of Panama near
04N83W. Generally dry air aloft and overall stable conditions are
noted across the central and eastern Caribbean this evening...with
most atmospheric moisture centered around Panama. A surface trough
extends from 19N80W to 10N81W and intersects the monsoon trough
axis analyzed along 10N. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring
S of 12N between 75W-84W and largely enhanced due to favorable
upper level divergence. Isolated showers are elsewhere W of 84W
across the NW Caribbean waters...pushing into interior portions of
Central America. Farther east...the only other area of note is a
surface trough analyzed SE of Trinidad and Tobago from 09N61W to
13N56W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring within
150 nm either side of the boundary...continuing to impact eastern
Venezuela...Trinidad and Tobago...and likely Barbados during the
late evening hours. Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades will
persist E of 80W into Thursday...with slightly strong winds
anticipated within 120 nm of the Colombia coast through the
overnight hours.

...HISPANIOLA...
Generally clear skies and fair weather conditions are across the
island this evening as the influence of dry westerly flow aloft
remains in place over the region. Little change is expected
through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted over the SW
North Atlc in the vicinity of 29N74W that supports a surface
trough extending from 29N72W across the central Bahamas to 23N79W.
Low-level moisture convergence along with middle to upper level
divergent E of the trough axis along 74W is supporting scattered
showers and tstms occurring from 22N-33N between 60W-76W. By late
Thursday a low is expected to develop across the far eastern
offshore water zones and move NE into the central Atlc waters
Thursday night into Friday. Farther east...a vigorous middle to
upper level low is centered over the central North Atlc near
39N40W that supports a storm-force 990 mb low nearly collocated
with the upper level feature. The associated cold front enters the
discussion area near 32N38W SW to 30N44W then W to 29N53W.
Isolated showers are possible within 90 nm either side of the
front. To the east...an old frontal boundary...now analyzed as a
surface trough extends from 32N30W to 28N32W to 25N36W. Scattered
showers and widely scattered tstms are occurring N of 24N between
26W-36W. The remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under
the influence of rather benign and tranquil conditions this
evening S of 25N.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net