[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291025
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
525 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
09N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 09N20W to
06N36W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-20N
between 17W-27W and from 02S-10N between 25W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle level low and associated trough covers much of the Gulf
and continue to support a surface trough from 28N90W SE to 23N86W.
GOES-16 water vapor imagery show deep layer dry air across most
of the Gulf, except a portion of the SE Gulf where shallow
moisture supports isolated showers and tstms S of 26N E of 89W,
including the Florida Straits. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails
elsewhere, thus providing moderate to fresh E winds in the SE
Gulf near the trough and light to gentle variable winds across the
remainder basin. The trough will remain nearly stationary the
next two days ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off
the Texas and Louisiana coasts Thursday morning. The front will
then move to the north-central Gulf waters Friday morning before
stalling.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level low centered in the Gulf of Mexico extends a trough
SE to NW Caribbean waters where it continues to support a surface
trough extending from 20N85W to Panama adjacent waters near
09N80W. The trough along with diffluent flow aloft support
scattered to isolated showers between 79W and 85W. Isolated
showers are also W of the trough in the Gulf of Honduras. In the
SW basin, the eastern extension of the EPAC monsoon trough
support scattered showers and tstms S of 13N W of 80W. Strong
high pressure N of the area support moderate NNW winds W of the
surface trough axis and fresh to strong winds in the south-central
Caribbean. Moderate trades dominate elsewhere. The surface trough
will dissipate tonight E of the Yucatan Peninsula. Otherwise, as
high pressure continues to move off the eastern CONUS, trades
across the south-central Caribbean will increase briefly into near
gale-force levels today.

...HISPANIOLA...

Generally clear skies and fair weather conditions are across the
island as the influence of mid to upper-level ridging remains in
place over the region. Increasing cloudiness is expected today as
the ridge slides eastward and southwesterly flow aloft begins to
impact the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level diffluence between a trough off the SE CONUS coast and
SW flow support scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms N of
24N between 66W and 76W. South of this area of showers, a
shearline extends along 26N66W to 26N72W to southern Andros
island. To the east, a surface trough extends from 30N47W to
26N55W with no significant convection. The remainder of the basin
is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by three 1018
mb high centers: 23N46W, 23N37W and 25N22W. A new cold front is
forecast to enter the north-central Atlc waters tonight.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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