[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
07N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 07N18W to
06N40W to 06N55W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to
07N between 10W and 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad mid to upper-level trough extends from the SE CONUS into
the Gulf, covering much of the basin and supporting a surface
trough from 25N89W SE across the Yucatan Channel near 21N85W to
the SW Caribbean basin. GOES-16 water vapor imagery show deep
layer dry air across most of the Gulf while CIRA LPW show only
shallow moisture in the SE Gulf, which is supporting isolated
showers within 150 nm either side of the surface trough.
Otherwise, a surface ridge along the E CONUS extends across the
remainder basis, thus providing moderate to fresh E winds in the
SE Gulf and light to gentle NNE winds elsewhere. The trough will
drift westward and eventually merge with the next cold front
forecast to move off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Thursday
morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GOES-16 water vapor imagery show dry stable conditions in the far
western and eastern Caribbean. However, in the central Caribbean
deep layer moisture underneath upper level diffluent flow support
scattered scattered heavy showers and tstms between 76W and 82W or
the vicinity of a surface trough that extends from 19N81W to
10N78W. Strong high pressure N of the western Caribbean support
moderate to strong NNW winds W of the surface trough and along the
coast of Colombia. Moderate trades are elsewhere. The surface
trough will slowly drift west through Thursday with showers.

...HISPANIOLA...

Generally clear skies and fair weather conditions will prevail
across the island through Wednesday night as the influence of mid
to upper-level ridging remains in place over the region. Showers
are forecast Thursday morning for the Dominican Republic as a
surface trough, currently NE of Puerto Rico, moves across the
Island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is across the SW N Atlc waters from 28N63W to
24N73W supporting scattered to isolated showers in the central and
southern Bahamas and within 135 nm either side of the trough axis.
Another surface trough is NE of Puerto Rico extending from 21N62W
to 18N63W supporting scattered to isolated showers S of 21N
between 59W and 65W. Surface ridging dominates the remainder
central and eastern Atlc anchored by a pair of 1021 mb highs
forecast to move westward during the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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