[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270521
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1221 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0415 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
08N23W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends just west of a
surface trough near 04N25W to 04N38W, then resumes west of another
surface trough near 04N43W to 03N49W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 01N to 12N between 21W and 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge axis extends S across the western Gulf from high
pressure centered over Arkansas. This is supporting generally
fair weather and moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds over
this portion of the basin. The only exception is showers
associated with a surface trough that is just offshore the Mexico
coast from 26N97W to 20N97W. Over the eastern Gulf, a 1014 mb low
is centered near 25N86W. Surface troughing extends from 28N85W to
the low center to 23N83W, and from the low center to near 22N90W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the low center.
Mainly moderate NE winds cover the eastern Gulf, except locally
fresh near the low center. Over the next 24 hours the low will
drift SW and weaken.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from 20N81W to 12N82W. The northern
portion of the trough is interacting with an upper level trough to
the west to support scattered moderate convection from 16N to 22N
between 77W and 85W. Scattered thunderstorms are W of the trough
axis S of 16N. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are W of
the trough axis. Moderate easterly trades dominate the remainder
of the Caribbean except fresh near the coasts of Venezuela and NE
Colombia. The E Pacific monsoon trough extends east from Panama to
near 09N75W supporting scattered thunderstorms S of 12N W of 75W.
Over the next 24 hours a trough over the SE Gulf will drift SW,
decreasing winds over the extreme NW Caribbean and increasing
chances for thunderstorms. Winds along the coast of Nicaragua are
expected to increase to near 25 kt.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are diminishing over the island
as mid to upper level ridging builds NW over the region. These
drier conditions are expected to prevail through Monday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N74W and extends
to 29N81W. Little moisture is associated with this front. Another
cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N59W and extends
to 28N65W, where it transitions to a stationary front that extends
to 25N72W to central Cuba near 21N78W. A pre-frontal trough
extends from 25N67W to 28N76W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 180 nm of either side of the front. Over
the central Atlantic, a 1018 mb high is centered near 25N57W, and
another 1018 mb high is centered near 26N45W. A cold front enters
the area of discussion near 31N44W and extends to 28N47W to
26N54W. No significant convection is noted with this front. A
surface trough void of deep convection extends from 21N58W to
15N58W. Over the eastern Atlantic, an upper trough supports
scattered moderate convection from 13N to 22N between 18W and 26W.
Over the next 24 hours the stationary front and cold front just
east of Florida will dissipate. The other cold front over the W
Atlantic will continue to move E. The central Atlantic cold front
will weaken.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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