[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260006
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Sat Nov 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to
08N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 08N18W to
08N30W to the South American coast near 05N52W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 03N-09N between 20W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high is centered over SE Louisiana near 30N90W. A
surface ridge axis extends S to the Yucatan Peninsula. A surface
trough is over the E Gulf of Mexico from 29N85W to 23N85W. Broken
low clouds are over the E Gulf E of 89W. Mostly fair weather is
over the W Gulf. 10-15 kt variable winds are noted over the Gulf.
In the upper levels, a large trough is over the Gulf of Mexico
with axis extending from the Florida Panhandle to the Yucatan
Peninsula. Strong subsidence is over the Gulf except over the NE
Gulf and N Florida where upper level cloudiness is seen. Expect
scattered showers to form over the SE Gulf along the southern
portion of the E Gulf trough over the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a quasi-stationary front is over central Cuba and
the NW Caribbean from 22N78W to 19N82W. Scattered showers are
within 240 nm E of front. A surface trough is over the SW
Caribbean from 18N80W to N Colombia near 10N76W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm of this trough. In addition, the
eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends over
Costa rica and Panama producing scattered moderate convection. In
the upper levels, upper level diffluence is over the central
Caribbean enhancing showers. A small upper level high is centered
over the Virgin Islands near 18N64W with strong subsidence E of
68W. Expect showers and convection to persist over the Caribbean
between 75W-85W for the next 24 hours. Also expect the front to
dissipate over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers continue over the island, as moist southwest
flow aloft prevails over the region. Little change is expected
over the next 48 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 31N70W to the
central Bahamas near 24N75W to central Cuba near 22N78W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm E of front to include the S
Bahamas. A prefrontal trough extends from 28N67W to 22N72W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm E of trough. A cold
front over the central Atlantic extends from 31N49W to 27N54W. A
stationary front continues to 25N58W. Scattered showers are
within 60 nm of the fronts. A cold front over the E Atlantic
extends from 31N17W through the Canary Islands to 26N17W to
19N24W. Scattered showers are over the Canary Islands and within
60 nm of the front. Of note in the upper levels, a trough is over
the W Atlantic W of 70W supporting the cold front. A large upper
level low is centered over the E Atlantic near 32N25W. Upper level
diffluence is SW of the center enhancing showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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