[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241127
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
627 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A partially occluded 1000 mb low is centered near 32N31W with the
associated cold front entering the discussion area near 32N27W
extending SW to 26N34W then W-NW to 29N42W. Near gale to gale
force N-NW winds are occurring generally N of 29N W of the front
to 38W and are expected to persist through Friday morning and
gradually diminish as the cold front weakens across the eastern
Atlc waters. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/
WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
05N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 05N22W to
03N43W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-10N between
08W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
over the basin with axis extending from over southern Georgia
near 32N83W to a base over the SW Gulf near 19N93W. This
troughing supports a 1009 mb low centered in the vicinity of Cape
Canaveral Florida near 29N81W and the associated cold front
extending SW to 22N86W then stationary across the Yucatan
peninsula. Gentle to moderate N winds prevail this morning across
much of the basin with isolated showers and tstms occurring S of
27N E of 84W...including portions of the Florida peninsula and
Florida Straits. The low will continue moving NE into the SW
North Atlc region through Friday as the front continues across
the remainder of the Florida peninsula and SE Gulf waters
clearing east of the basin by Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A surface trough extends from 10N81W to 18N79W with scattered
showers and tstms occurring between 75W-83W. This activity
extends farther south across Costa Rica and Panama as the monsoon
trough axis extends along 09N/10N. Most of this convection is
supported aloft by overall divergent southwesterly flow aloft
between a middle to upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico
and a middle to upper level ridge anchored over the NE Caribbean
near 16N67W. Otherwise...mainly gentle to moderate trades are
occurring E of 78W. Little change is expected through Sunday
night.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers are possible across western portions of the
island this morning as more active convection lies across eastern
Cuba and the waters surrounding Jamaica in association with a
favorable divergent environment within southwesterly flow aloft.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front enters the SW North Atlc region near 32N65W
and extends westward to 31N77W then SW into a 1009 mb low
centered in the vicinity of Cape Canaveral Florida. The middle to
upper level trough supporting the low remains over much of the
Gulf of Mexico...while a favorable divergent environment remains
over much of the SW North Atlc generating scattered showers and
tstms generally W of 66W. The low is expected to move NE through
Saturday night with persistent precipitation and convection
expected along and E of the cold front extending southward from
the low. Farther east...a gradually weakening 1008 mb low is
centered near 34N57W with the associated cold front extending
from the low to 25N66W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring
E of the low from 30N-34N between 49W-56W. Otherwise...the
remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of the
Special Features 1000 mb low centered near 32N31W. While the near
gale to gale force conditions are associated with the secondary
wave of energy behind a cold front...a remnant cold front to the
SE extends from 30N25W to 23N31W to 21N43W with scattered showers
and tstms occurring N of 23N between 19W-27W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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