[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1250 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Strong high pressure building behind a cold front over the Gulf
of Mexico is supporting gale force winds S of 21N W of the front.
These winds are forecast to continue through Monday morning. Wave
heights of 8 to 12 ft are expected associated with these winds.
See the latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
07N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
07N21W to 05N36W to the South American coast near 07N58W.
Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 02N-09N between
20W-31W, and from 06N-10N between 31W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends from S Florida near 26N82W to
22N93W to the Bay of Campeche near 19N96W. A gale is over the SW
Gulf S of 21N W of the front. See above. This front is void of
precipitation. Elsewhere, radar imagery shows isolated showers
are over the SE Gulf from 24N-25N between 82W-84W. In the upper
levels, zonal flow is noted. Strong subsidence is over the Gulf
except along the Texas and Louisiana coasts. Expect over the next
24 hours for the front to stall from S Florida to the SW Bay of
Campeche, and then begin to slowly retrograde back N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 mb low is centered over the central Caribbean near
15N72W. A surface trough extends NE from the low through the Mona
Passage to the Atlantic near 22N66W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is near the low from 12N-18N between
68W-71W, to include Aruba and Curacao. Scattered showers are
elsewhere within 180 nm of the trough axis, to include Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands. In the upper levels, an upper level
trough is over the NW Caribbean with axis from E Cuba near 20N74W
to the Gulf of Honduras near 16N89W. Upper level diffluence E of
the trough is enhancing the showers and convection over the
central Caribbean Sea. Expect the area of convection to drift W
and persist for the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are over Hispaniola, and will continue through
Tuesday. Expect convection to build over Hispaniola in the
afternoon and evening hours during maximum heating. Localized
flooding is also possible during this time.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 0300 UTC, a cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N74W
to near West Palm Beach Florida. Scattered showers are within 60
nm of the front. A 1020 mb high is centered over the central
Atlantic near 34N53W producing fair weather. A 1008 mb low is
centered over the E Atlantic near 31N34W. A cold front extends SW
from the low to 27N40W to 22N54W. Isolated moderate convection is
within 120 nm of the front. A surface trough is just e of the
Canary Islands from 30N11W to 25N16W. Scattered showers are over
the Canary Islands. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level
trough is over the W Atlantic enhancing the W Atlantic front.
Another upper level trough is over the central Atlantic with axis
from 31N46W to 23N53W. Upper level diffluence is E of this trough.
In addition a small upper level low is centered near the Canary
Islands at 30N13W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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