[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
102 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 mb low pressure center is near 36N28W, about 120 nm to the
SW of the Azores. A surface trough extends from the low center to
32N27W to 26N32W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from
19N between 30W and 60W. scattered moderate to strong from 34N to
38N between 22W and 24W. widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 30N to 34N between 23W and 30W. This system has a
medium chance to become a subtropical cyclone during the next
couple of days, before upper-level winds become unfavorable.
This low center is expected to produce winds to near gale-force
during the next day or two while it moves slowly northeastward.
Please read the High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under
WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at http://www.meteofrance.
com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin, for more details.

An Atlantic Ocean surface trough is along 30N60W 27N63W 25N68W
22N71W 21N75W, off the SE coast of Cuba. The 30-hour forecast,
from 15/0000 UTC, consists of the following: TROUGH FROM LOW PRES
N OF AREA TO 31N57W TO LOW PRES NEAR 26N64W 1008 MB TO 22N71W.
Expect gale-force SW winds, and sea heights that range from 10
feet to 13 feet, N OF 28N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W. Precipitation:
scattered strong from 22N to 24N between 68W and 70W. isolated
moderate elsewhere from 20N northward between 60W and 76W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
08N21W. The ITCZ continues from 08N21W to 08N27W 05N43W, to the
coast of Suriname near 05N53W. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to strong from 05N to 08N between 26W and 34W. widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated strong from 04N to 07N between 15W
and 21W, and from 06N to 10N between 47W and 50W.

An upper level trough passes through 32N28W to 25N31W to 20N36W to
12N48W to 06N50W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 10N
to 20N between Africa and 60W, and from 20N to 24N between 22W and
30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level NW wind flow, dry air, and subsidence span the entire
area. An upper level trough passes through 32N77W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to Florida near Lake Okeechobee, across NW Cuba, into the
NW corner of the Caribbean Sea near 19N84W.

A cold front passes through 32N65W to 30N72W and 29N74W. The cold
front is dissipating from 29N74W, across the NW Bahamas, to
26N79W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the NW of the
line that starts from the coast of Florida near 25N80W, to 28N74W,
beyond 32N67W.

A surface ridge passes through the Florida Big Bend into the NW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to 22N97W in the SW corner of the
area, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

The wind forecast for the next 24 hours: winds in the eastern
Gulf will increase to fresh to strong as high pressure builds
southward toward the SE United States.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from a 1007 mb low pressure center that
is near 13N79W, to 15N80W 17N80W and 20N78W near SE Cuba. The
monsoon trough extends from the 1007 mb low pressure center,
beyond SE Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 16N to 20N
between the Mona Passage and 80W. isolated moderate covers the
rest of the area that is from 70W westward. numerous strong is in
NW Venezuela, near Lake Maracaibo, from 08N to 11N between 70W
and 73W.

An upper level ridge extends from the coast of Colombia that is
near 12N73W, across Hispaniola, beyond 32N52W. Broad upper level
anticyclonic wind flow spans nearly the entire Caribbean Sea. An
upper level trough is moving through the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea.

...HISPANIOLA...

Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will persist across
Hispaniola during the next few days. Deep moisture is going to be
pulled NE across the area due to an upper level trough to the
west. The precipitation amounts will be comparatively the greatest
in the afternoon and evening hours during maximum heating.
Localized flooding and life-threatening mud slides are also
possible during this time.

The GFS model for 250 mb shows that SW wind flow will move across
the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS model for 500 mb and
for 700 mb shows that Hispaniola will be on the eastern side of a
trough. Expect SW wind flow during the next 48 hours.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N65W to 30N72W and 29N74W. The cold
front is dissipating from 29N74W, across the NW Bahamas, to
26N79W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the NW of the
line that starts from the coast of Florida near 25N80W, to 28N74W,
beyond 32N67W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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