[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132337
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
637 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1010 mb low is centered near 32N32W and is supported aloft by a
vigorous middle to upper level low near 32N31W. Isolated moderate
convection is occurring near the center from 30N-33N between
28W-32W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring farther NE in
association with warm and cold fronts impacting the Azores this
evening from 33N-39N between 25W-31W. This low pressure area has a
medium chance of becoming a subtropical cyclone during the next
couple of days as it moves to the NE. Regardless of subtropical
development...fresh to strong cyclonic winds are expected across
the Azores through Thursday.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
08N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N17W to 06N23W to 07N40W to 04N51W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 04N-13N between 14W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level trough extends over the Gulf basin this evening
from over northern Florida SW to a base over the SW waters near
20N94W. Middle to upper level divergence E of the trough axis is
supporting isolated showers generally across the SE Gulf waters S
of 25N E of 88W...including the southern Florida peninsula and
Florida Straits. Elsewhere across the basin...high pressure
anchored across the Great Lakes region is generating moderate to
fresh N-NE winds. The current pressure gradient is expected to
relax somewhat by Wednesday with decreasing winds into gentle to
moderate breeze levels and gentle southerly return flow re-
establishing itself across the NW waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Middle to upper level divergence prevails over much of the western
Caribbean this evening generating a broad area of scattered showers
and widely scattered tstms W of 75W...including the eastern
Yucatan peninsula and Belize...and portions of Nicaragua...Costa
Rica...and Panama. Enhancing this ongoing convection is the
monsoon trough axis along 10N and a 1006 mb low centered near
10N77W with a surface trough extending N-NW from the low to the
south-central adjacent coastal waters of Cuba near 21N80W. Outside
the area of active convection...moderate to fresh trades prevail
and are expected to persist through Tuesday. Global models
indicate a broad and stretched out area of surface low pressure
developing from the waters NE of Cuba to Jamaica and into the SW
Caribbean Tuesday night into Wednesday quickly moving E-NE and
merging with a frontal boundary in the SW North Atlc Wednesday
night into Thursday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers and tstms continue across the island this
evening as the region remains within west-southwesterly flow
aloft. Becoming a more favorable environment aloft through
Wednesday...low-level moisture convergence continues to be
maximized across the region within E-SE trades. This overall
pattern will persist through Thursday with convection expected to
increase during the next 24 to 48 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough extends from over the Carolinas SW
to over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Southwesterly flow aloft
prevails over much of the SW North Atlc with moisture and
cloudiness advecting northeastward out of the Caribbean Sea. An
overall divergent environment aloft is supporting a large area of
scattered to occasional numerous showers and widely scattered
tstms from 20N-32N between 66W-80W. Otherwise...farther east...a
surface ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 32N49W
continues to provide mostly tranquil conditions between 40W-60W.
Finally...the special features section above describes the
gradually development of a 1010 mb low centered near 32N32W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net