[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131119
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
619 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
09N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
09N17W to 06N37W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection and
tstms are from 04N-11N between 20W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends across the E CONUS SSW to a base
over the SW Gulf supporting isolated showers in the NE basin N of
26N. Southerly diffluent flow continue to support scattered
showers across the Yucatan Channel, the E Yucatan Peninsula and
the Florida Straits. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails
elsewhere. A tight pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressure over the W Caribbean supports fresh to locally strong ENE
winds E of 90W, including the aforementioned areas being affected
by convection. Moderate to fresh NNE winds are elsewhere. Surface
ridging will dominate across the basin the next three days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad low pressure prevails across the western Caribbean
underneath a middle level low and southerly upper level diffluent
flow. This atmospheric scenario supports a surface trough along
20N79W to 12N80W and scattered heavy showers and tstms elsewhere
W of 74W. Middle to upper level diffluence support scattered
showers across the eastern half of Hispaniola. A middle level
ridge and dry air aloft provide stability and generally fair
weather to the eastern half of the Caribbean. A tight pressure
gradient between high pressure N of the area and the broad area of
low pressure in the western half of the Caribbean supports fresh
to locally strong winds in the NW Caribbean N of 14N W of 75W. A
broad low pressure will develop in the SW basin later today and
will persist beyond Wednesday, thus supporting the continuation of
showers in the western Caribbean. Otherwise, moderate to
occasional fresh trades E of 74W will persist.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle to upper level diffluence support scattered showers across
the eastern half of Hispaniola and cloudiness with possible
isolated showers elsewhere. This overall pattern will persist
through Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Middle to upper level diffluence supports scattered showers in
the approaches of the Windward Passage and isolated showers across
the southern Bahamas. In the NE basin, a 1013 mb low is centered
near 30N34W. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for some additional development, and the system could
become a subtropical cyclone during the next few days while it
moves slowly northeastward. There is a low chance of cyclogenesis
within the next 48 hours. Lastly, a surface trough extends from
23N26W to the Cape Verde Islands supporting showers there and
northward from 15N-30N between 21W-33W. Otherwise, surface ridging
prevails elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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