[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121749
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1249 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from west Africa
near 08N13W to 09N30W to 08N46W to 08N51W. The ITCZ resumes W of a
surface trough near 08N54W and continues to the coast of South
America near 07N59W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-10N
between 24W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The tail end of a stationary front extends from Stuart Florida
near 27N80W to Sarasota Florida near 27N83W to the E Gulf of
Mexico near 27N85W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over
central and south Florida, and the Straits of Florida. A surface
trough is over the central Gulf of Mexico from 29N89W to 21N91W.
Isolated moderate convection is within 45 nm of the trough. A
surface trough is over the W Gulf from Corpus Christi Texas near
28N97W to 22N97W to the Bay of Campeche near 19N94W. Scattered
showers are within 45 nm of the trough. In the upper levels, a
trough is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis from the Florida
Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche. Strong subsidence is over most
of the Gulf. Expect over the next 24 hours, for the surface front
to dissipate over the Gulf, and for the two surface troughs to
continue to produce scattered showers. Also expect the upper level
trough to move E to the E Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1007 mb low is centered off the coast of SE Nicaragua near 11N83W.
A surface trough extends from the NW Caribbean near 18N83W to the
low center to 09N82W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over most of the NW Caribbean from 15N-21N between
79W-89W. In addition, scattered showers are within 45 nm of the
remainder of the surface trough. Further E, a 1007 mb low is along
the coast of Colombia near 10N75W. Scattered showers are within 45
nm of the low. In the upper levels, upper level diffluence is
over the NW Caribbean enhancing convection. Expect additional
convection over the central and western Caribbean over the next 48
hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered moderate convection is over Hispaniola mostly due to
upper level diffluence. Expect convection to persist for the next
48 hours. Convection will be heaviest in the afternoon and evening
hours during maximum heating. Localized flooding and life-
threatening mud slides are also possible.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N63W to 27N73W
to Stuart Florida near 27N80W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm
of the front. A prefrontal trough is extends from 31N56W to
24N60W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm E of the
trough. Scattered moderate convection is also N of Hispaniola
from 20N-22N between 68W-72W. A surface trough is over the
tropical Atlantic from 12N50W to 05N53W. Scattered showers are
within 60 nm of the trough. A 1016 mb low is centered over the E
Atlantic near 30N34W. A surface trough extends S from the low to
23N34W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the low and within
60 nm of the trough. This system could gradually acquire some
subtropical characteristics by the middle of next week while it
moves slowly northeastward. Of note in the upper levels, an upper
level trough is over the W Atlantic supporting the front. A large
upper level low is centered over the E Atlantic near 30N35W with
a trough axis extending SW to 12N48W. Upper level diffluence is E
of this trough axis to the coast of W Africa. Expect the front in
24 hours to be dissipating.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net