[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
102 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 10N18W to
08N40W to 06N54W. Scattered moderate convection and isolated
tstms are from 05N-08N between 10W-15W and from 10N-15N between
29W-40W. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-08N between
22W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure has established across the E CONUS anchored
by a 1040 mb high near the Great Lakes. The ridge extends S
covering most of the Gulf waters, except W of 94W where the
remnants of a stationary front extends from a 1018 mb low near
25N97W to 21N95W to the Bay of Campeche near 19N94W. Isolated
showers are occurring within 105 nm either side of the boundary.
The pressure gradient between the strong ridge and lower pressure
over the SW N Atlc and the W Caribbean supports fresh to locally
strong NE winds E of 87W, including the Yucatan Channel and the
Florida Straits. Moderate NE to E winds are elsewhere. Otherwise, water
vapor imagery indicate broad upper troughing over the basin along
with relatively dry air aloft, which is maintaining generally
fair weather conditions. The weakening stationary front will
dissipate Saturday, leaving a surface trough over E Mexico adjacent
waters. Not significant changes expected elsewhere through Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level low extending from N of Hispaniola to the SW
Caribbean continue to support a surface trough that extends from E
Cuba to W Jamaica coastal waters to 14N79W. Diffluence between the
middle level low and a ridge in the E Caribbean supports scattered
heavy showers and tstms in the Windward Passage, across Jamaica
and from 12N-17N between 70W-79W. Isolated showers and tstms
extend to the Gulf of Honduras and across the Yucatan Channel.
Cloudiness with possible isolated showers are across Hispaniola.
Generally, fair weather is elsewhere. A strong pressure gradient
between high pressure N of the area and the broad area of low
pressure in the western half of the basin support fresh to locally
strong winds in the Lee of Cuba and within 90 nm of the S coast of
Jamaica. These winds will expand SW across much of the NW
Caribbean through Sunday. This synoptic pattern will be slow to
modify through Monday as the upper level troughing over the Gulf
of Mexico and SW North Atlc will be slow to weaken into early next
week. Otherwise, moderate to occasional fresh trades E of 75W
will persist.

...HISPANIOLA...

Cloudiness with possible isolated showers are across the Island
being supported by a broad area of low pressure across the western
half of the Caribbean and middle level diffluent flow. The shower
activity is forecast to continue through Monday, increasing during
the afternoon hours due in part to daytime heating.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level trough with axis along the E CONUS seaboard
continue to support a cold front N of the area with tail reaching
the SW N Atlc waters along 30N73W to 29N77W. Ahead of that
boundary a cold front continues to weaken from 30N69W to 27N77W
where it stalls over S Florida where it is supporting isolated
showers. A pre-frontal surface trough is analyzed from the SE
Bahamas near 21N73W to 30N67W. Scattered to isolated showers are
within 210 nm E of the trough axis. Elsewhere, the eastern Atlc
is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1040 mb
high centered NE of the Azores Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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