[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101718
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1217 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N17W to
11N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 11N19W
to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 200 nm
on either side of the boundaries mainly east of 27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal system extends across the basin, analyzed as a
stationary front across central Florida to 27N83W to 25N89W to a
1014 mb low near 24N96W to 18N95W. Isolated showers are noted
along the front and near the low. A surface trough extends north
from the low to 28N97W. Gentle to moderate northeast winds
prevail south of the frontal boundary and low, while fresh to
strong northeast winds are noted north and west of the features.
Expect for the front to gradually weaken through the next 24
hours. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are expected on Saturday
across much of the basin. High pressure will build across the
southeast CONUS over the weekend and introduce a reinforcing shot
of cold air into the Gulf, causing northeast winds to increase
across the eastern Gulf and Florida peninsula until early next
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad area of low pressure covers much of the basin, anchored
by a 1008 mb low centered south of Jamaica near 15N78W. A surface
trough curves northeast from the low to east Cuba near 20N75W.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted between
70W-78W supported by a diffluent flow aloft. To the west, another
surface trough extends over the Yucatan Channel to the Gulf of
Honduras. Scattered moderate convection prevails south of 20N
between 84W- 88W. Satellite- derived wind data show gentle to
moderate northeast winds west of the surface trough in the central
Caribbean while fresh to occasionally strong southeast winds
prevail east of the trough. This broad area of lower pressure is
expected to persist and slowly move west through the upcoming
weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

Surface troughing extends west of the island to a low pressure
south of Jamaica near 15N78W. A diffluent flow aloft in this area
supports scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms affecting
mainly the western portion of the island. This activity will
likely persist during the next 48 hours and maintain the threat of
localized flooding and life-threatening mud slides, especially if
stronger convection develops during peak daytime heating and
instability.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N73W to
28N80W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 28N68W to
24N71W with scattered showers affecting mainly the southern
Bahamas. This activity is supported by a diffluent flow aloft.
Another surface trough extends from 29N48W to 19N48W with
scattered showers prevailing along and within 100 nm east of the
trough. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the
basin.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

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