[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060452
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1152 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor
imagery in the vicinity of 30N50W and supports a 1012 mb low
centered near 29N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from
27N-30N between 48W-51W with isolated moderate convection
elsewhere from 25N-35N between 44W-51W. The low is expected to
drift northward through Monday night and merge with a weakening
frontal boundary currently along 35N. Until then...conditions are
expected to remain favorable for possible tropical cyclone
development across the central Atlc. This system has a high
chance of tropical cyclone development within the next 48 hours.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to
11N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
11N20W to 06N27W to 07N58W. Isolated moderate convection is from
02N-07N between the Prime Meridian and 08W...and from 04N-11N
between 10W-21W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-08N
between 21W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near 30N86W
continues to prevail across the entire basin this evening. Latest
scatterometer...ship...and buoy data indicates gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow throughout...with occasional fresh southerly
winds across the far NW waters. The ridge is expected to move
little and remain nearly stationary across the NE Gulf waters
through Tuesday night. Moderate to occasional fresh southerly
return flow is forecast across western portions through Wednesday
when the next front is expected to emerge off the Texas and
Louisiana coast Wednesday afternoon into the early evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A surface trough extends from 13N83W to 21N82W and continues to
provide focus for isolated showers and tstms occurring from 13N-
17N between 82W-87W. The trough is supported aloft by a middle to
upper level trough with axis extending from over central Cuba to a
base over NE Honduras near 16N85W. Middle to upper level
divergence east of the trough axis is generating widely scattered
showers from 16N-21N between 72W-80W. Farther east...shallow
isolated showers are occurring primarily E of 72W...including
Hispaniola...the Mona Passage...and Puerto Rico. Otherwise...
gentle to moderate trades are expected to persist through
Wednesday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers linger across the island this evening...as a
middle to upper level trough lies to the E over the western
Caribbean. The troughing is generating an area of divergence over
the region within southwesterly flow aloft. Gentle to moderate
trades prevail at the surface.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Water vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level trough with
axis extending from 32N71W to 23N79W to a base over Central
America near 16N85W. This troughing supports a surface trough
analyzed from 23N78W to 30N75W. Maximum middle to upper level
divergence associated with the trough is generating an area of
widely scattered showers and possible isolated tstms from 20N-27N
between 66W-76W. Across the central Atlc...the special features
low pressure area is mentioned above. The low is expected to drift
northward through Monday night. The remainder of the eastern Atlc
is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1033 mb
high centered NE of the Azores near 42N16W with axis extending SW
to 26N40W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

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