[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030516
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
116 AM EDT Fri Nov 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to
10N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 10N20W to
08N30W to 09N34W, then continues W of a surface trough at 09N36W
to 08N50W to 10N55W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are
from 02N-10N between 22W-32W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 03N-11N between 35W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1033 mb high is centered over North Carolina near 36N80W. A
surface ridge axis extends SW from the high to the NE Gulf of
Mexico. 10-20 kt E to SE surface winds are over the Gulf with the
strongest winds over the Straits of Florida. Mostly fair weather is
over the Gulf. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over the
Straits of Florida from 23N-25N between 81W-83W. In the upper
levels, zonal flow prevails with strong subsidence. Expect surface
return flow to persist over the Gulf for the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A small area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is S of Cozumel Mexico from 18N-20N between 86W-88W. A line of
surface confluence extends from E Cuba near 20N75W to NE Nicaragua
near 14N83W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm
of this line. Further S, a surface trough is along the coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica from 13N83W to 09N81W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is within 90 nm of the trough. Further E,
scattered showers have advected over the Leeward and Windward
Islands from the Atlantic. In the upper levels, a large upper
level high is centered over the Yucatan Peninsula near 18N90W.
Strong subsidence is over the E Caribbean and the S Caribbean.
Expect more showers to advect over the E Caribbean over the next
24 to 48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

The tail end of a trough reaches NW Hispaniola from the Atlantic
supporting scattered showers over Haiti. Expect more showers over
the Island over the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 30N73W to 25N72W to
NW Haiti near 20N72W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
trough. Further E, a 1013 mb low is centered over the central
Atlantic near 28N55W. A surface trough extends from 30N52W to the
low center to 25N58W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
trough. Another surface trough is E of the Lesser Antilles from
21N54W to 12N56W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of this
trough. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is
centered over the central Atlantic near 32N54W. Upper level
diffluence is E of this low. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 22N-35N between 45W-51W. Expect the W Atlantic trough,
and the E of the Lesser Antilles trough, to move W over the next
24 hours with showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

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