[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021738
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
137 PM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
08N18W, where The Intertropical Convergence Zone begins and extends
to 08N31W, then continues W of a surface trough near 06N37W to
04N50W. The surface trough extends from 10N33W to 03N34W. Numerous
moderate convection is from 01N to 11N between 30W and 39W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 08N between 14W and
30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge axis extends from the southeastern U.S. across the
Florida panhandle to the Bay of Campeche. This ridge supports
mostly clear skies and gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the
entire Gulf basin today. Seas were generally 1 to 3 FT. Expect
little change through Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough continues to move W across the NW portion of the
basin with an axis extending from 21N85W to near the Honduran
coast at 16N87W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough.
Another trough is just east of the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa
Rica from 14N83W to 09N82W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted S of 13N W of 81W. Moist mid to upper level
flow around the periphery of an upper level ridge centered over
Cuba supports isolated moderate convection elsewhere in the area
from 13N to 21N between 79W and 85W. Surface ridging north of the
basin supports mainly moderate E to NE winds over the Caribbean
today, except locally fresh near the coast of Colombia and over
the Lee of Cuba. a 1458 UTC ASCAT pass indicated 20-25 KT winds
within 90-120 NM of the coast of Colombia. Over the next 24
hours the NW Caribbean surface trough will move inland over the
Yucatan. The ridge to the north will weaken slightly which will
result in winds decreasing over much of the Caribbean by late
Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...

The southern extent of surface trough and enhanced mid to upper
level moisture supports broken to overcast low and mid clouds with
embedded showers and isolated thunderstorms over the SW tip of
Haiti. The 1200 UTC sounding from Santo Domingo confirmed a moist
profile to about 690 mb with pronounced drying above. Precipitable
water values were 1.67 inches. Little change in overall conditions
is expected through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pair of surface troughs, the remnants of a front, extend over
the W Atlantic from 31N71W to 26N70W, and from 25N70W to 19N71W
the N coast of Hispaniola. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of
the trough. Farther East, a 1014 mb low is centered near 28N54W
with a surface trough extending from the low to 22N57W. This low
is centered underneath a sharp upper trough extend deep into the
tropical Atlantic. This upper air pattern is supporting
multi-layered clouds with embedded showers and isolated moderate
convection from 13N to 31N between 43W and 51W. A cold front
extends into the area of discussion near 31N20W to 29N26W to
31N33W. No significant convection is noted with this front. Over
the next 24 hours the W Atlantic troughs will drift westward. The
low over the central Atlantic will drift SW and weaken. The front
will move southeast and weaken.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto/Cobb
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