[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312341
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
741 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area of
AGADIR.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 12N36W to 02N36W, moving west at 15-20 kt within the last 24
hours. The wave is in a region of moderate moisture and is under
a middle to upper-level diffluent flow. Isolated showers are
prevailing in the wave's environment between 33W-38W.

A tropical wave is in the western Atlantic with axis extending
from 12N49W to 03N50W, moving west at 10-15 kt within the last 24
hours. TPW imagery shows a very moist environment within this
wave, however, Saharan dry air and dust are limiting the
convection to the southwest hindering deep convection at the
time.

A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis extending from
12N73W to inland Colombia, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24
hours. There is no convection associated with this wave in the
basin.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 07N21W. The ITCZ begins
from that point to 06N35W then resumes west of a tropical wave
near 06N38W to 06N48W. Besides the convection associated with the
waves, scattered moderate convection prevails within 100 nm on
either side of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The outer rainbands of T.D. Two-E in the EPAC waters extend
across the western Gulf supporting scattered moderate convection
west of 90W, with a 1013 mb surface low centered near 22N97W. An
elongated surface trough extends along the coast of Texas near
28N95W to the Florida Panhandle near 30N87W. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are within 75 nm off the coasts of Mississippi,
Alabama and northern Florida to 87W. A surface ridge dominates
the remainder basin supporting light to moderate southeast winds.
Expect for the low in the southwest Gulf to drift over the Bay of
Campeche through the next day or two and then move northward by
Saturday. Return flow will prevail elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The northern portion of two tropical waves are moving across
Central America and the south-central Caribbean enhancing
convection mostly over the land areas. Please refer to the
section above for details. The only area with isolated showers and
thunderstorms in the basin prevails over Hispaniola, the Mona
Passage and Puerto Rico, supported by an upper-level low that
prevails centered north of the islands. This activity will
diminish through Friday evening as the upper-level low shifts to
the east. Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the basin, as
noted in scatterometer data.

HISPANIOLA...

A mid to upper-level low north of the island continues to support
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern portion of
the island. This activity will diminish by Friday evening as the
upper-level low shifts east.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. Please refer
to the Tropical Waves section for more details. Showers and
thunderstorms are over eastern Hispaniola, the Mona Passage and
Puerto Rico associatedwith a mid to upper-level low centered
north of the islands. The remainder basin is under the influence
of a broad surface ridge that is anchored by a 1023 mb high near
27N67W and a second high of 1022 mb near 31N39W. A cold front is
entering the west Atlantic north of 29N between 53W-60W, which
will move to central Atlantic waters by Thursday morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

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