[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311110
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
710 AM EDT Wed May 31 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area that
is called: AGADIR.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W from 13N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from
02N to 08N between 30W and 36W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W from 13N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
from 06N to 08N between 40W and 46W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/70W, from 14N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. The wave is moving
into the area of an upper level trough. Convective precipitation:
no significant deep convective precipitation.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W/80W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate from 12N southward between 77W and 81W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W, to 07N20W and 06N25W. The ITCZ continues
from 06N25W to 04N33W, 05N35W and 04N43W. Convective
precipitation: numerous strong from 07N to 11N between 16W and
19W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 180 nm of
the coast of Africa from 16W eastward, from 02N to 10N between
20W and 30W, and from Brazil and French Guiana near 03N to 06N
between 46W and 53W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 10N
southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge is along 88W. A stationary front is in
Texas, from East Texas, into south central Texas, beyond the Texas
Big Bend. A surface trough extends from southern Alabama, across
SE Louisiana, into the coastal waters of the middle Texas Gulf of
Mexico coast. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible
from 25N northward. A second surface trough is in the Gulf of
Mexico, from the eastern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico, to 23N93W. Convective precipitation: numerous
strong from 17N inland to 20N between 91W and 94W in the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate to isolated strong from
20N to 23N between 93W and 97W, just to the NW of the numerous
strong precipitation.

A surface ridge passes through the NW Bahamas, to 28N89W in the
north central waters.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KEIR and KDLP.

MVFR: none.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

Texas: IFR in Weslaco and Hebbronville. MVFR in Bay City. IFR at
the Houston Hobby Airport, at the IAH Airport, and in Beaumont/
Port Arthur. MVFR in Jasper. LOUISIANA: MVFR/IFR from Baton Rouge
southward. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR in McComb. light rain in Pascagoula.
ALABAMA: light rain in parts of the Mobile metropolitan area.
FLORIDA: light rain in parts of the Pensacolametropolitan area,
in Mary Esther, and in Destin. MVFR in the Key West metropolitan
area.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from a 22N69W cyclonic circulation
center, across Hispaniola, to the Peninsula de la Guajira of NE
Colombia/NW Venezuela. A surface trough is along 22N66W in the
Atlantic Ocean, to 19N67W, and 17N68W in the Caribbean Sea.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
from 15N in the Caribbean Sea to 22N in the Atlantic Ocean between
64W and 72W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong in Lake
Maracaibo in NW Venezuela.

Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong within 30 nm to 60 nm on either side of the line that runs
from 19N86W to 14N83W, from the coastal waters of the Yucatan
Peninsula, to the coastal waters of Nicaragua. Upper level NW
wind flow is on top of this area.

The monsoon trough is along 09N72W in NW Venezuela, to eastern
Panama, beyond SE Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 12N southward
between 77W and 81W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 31/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.03 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is moving across the area, with the
current upper level trough. A surface trough is along 22N66W in the
Atlantic Ocean, to 19N67W, and 17N68W in the Caribbean Sea.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
from 15N in the Caribbean Sea to 22N in the Atlantic Ocean between
64W and 72W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong in Lake
Maracaibo in NW Venezuela.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR.
for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: rain and thunder.
MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana:
VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Punta Cana: VFR. earlier rain has
ended for the moment. Santiago: rain and thunder. MVFR. ceiling
1600 feet. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow
will span Hispaniola during the first 6 to 12 hours of the
48-hour forecast period, with the current trough. Expect NW wind
flow, and then N wind flow, during the rest of the time. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow will cover
the easternmost part of the Dominican Republic during the first 6
hours or so. A cyclonic circulation center will be on top of that
area. The cyclonic circulation center is forecast to move
eastward a bit, and also to meander and stay near the Mona
Passage, and even return to the easternmost part of the Dominican
Republic. Cyclonic wind flow will cover the easternmost part of
the Dominican Republic, while the cyclonic circulation center is
being located in that area. Expect NE wind flow if the cyclonic
circulation center is closer to Puerto Rico. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 700 mb shows that easterly wind flow will move across
the area during the next 48 hours. It is possible that the
direction may be from the SE or the NE at times, during the
overall forecast period.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is along 28N24W, to 22N32W, 15N39W, and to
13N44W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent.

An upper level trough passes 32N40W to 25N50W, 24N60W, toward the
22N69W cyclonic circulation center. A cold front passes through
32N57W, to 31N64W, beyond 32N68W. Convective precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong from 30N to 32N between 75W and 80W.
Isolated moderate elsewhere from 28N northward from 75W westward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center that
is near 34N25W, through a 1021 mb high pressure center that is
near 27N50W, to a 1021 mb high pressure center that is near
27N64W, and beyond the NW Bahamas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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