[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
801 PM EDT Tue May 30 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, listed under
the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND
LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM
/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force
winds are forecast for the area of AGADIR. The outlook for the 24
hours that follow the forecast valid until 31/1200 UTC continues
to depict north near-gale to gale winds at times.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis extending
from 13N29W to 04N30W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Saharan dry air
and dust are observed in the wave's environment, which inhibits
deep convection at the time. Shallow moisture supports isolated
showers along the wave's axis south of 05N.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 12N41W to 01N43W, moving west at 10-15 kt. TPW imagery shows
a moderate moist environment east of the wave's axis that along
with upper-level diffluence supports isolated showers south of
08N between 40W-42W. Saharan dry air is west of the wave axis
inhibiting convection.

A tropical wave is in the southeast Caribbean with axis extending
from 13N65W to inland Venezuela near 01N66W, moving west at 10-15
kt. TPW imagery shows a moderate moist environment within this
wave. Scattered moderate convection prevails within the portion
of the wave that prevails over land.

A tropical wave is in the southwest Caribbean with axis extending
from 16N77W to the EPAC near 04N77W, moving west at 10-15 kt.
Isolated moderate convection is present in the wave's environment
south of 11N between 74W-79W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 18N16W to 08N27W. The ITCZ begins
near 07N33W to 07N40W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near
07N45W to 06N57W. Besides the convection associated with the
waves, scattered moderate convection is within 300 nm south of
the monsoon trough and east of 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1015 mb surface low pressure is centered near 28N95W and dominates
the western half of the Gulf. a surface trough extends from the
low to 29N89W. A diffluent flow aloft supports scattered moderate
convection between 87W-91W. To the east, a 1021 mb surface high
is centered near 30N85W. In the southwest portion of the basin,
the latest scatterometer data shows a surface trough extending
from 25N95W to the Bay of Campeche near 20N96W. Gentle to moderate
easterly winds prevail across the basin. The low and trough are
forecast to dissipate by Wed morning, leaving return flow across
the basin through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the southern portion of the
basin. Please refer to the section above for details. The
proximity of the monsoon trough that extends along 10N and the
tropical wave. The remainder of the basin enjoys fair weather
being influenced by an upper- level ridge that promotes dry air
subsidence from aloft. There is an upper- level low north of
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico that is keeping a diffluent flow across
the islands. With this, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted across central Hispaniola and the western half of Puerto
Rico, as well as the Mona Passage. A similar weather pattern will
prevail through the next 24 hours.

HISPANIOLA...

An upper-level low north of Hispaniola and westerly flow south of
the island support diffluence aloft, which supports scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the island. This shower activity
is forecast to continue through Wednesday evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. Please refer
to the Tropical Waves section for more details. The remainder
basin is under the influence of a broad surface ridge that is
anchored by a 1025 mb high south of the Azores Islands near
33N27W and a 1023 mb one near 28N43W. A cold front is forecast to
enter the northeast corner of the west Atlantic by Wednesday
morning then will move to central Atlantic by Thursday morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

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