[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
202 PM EDT Tue May 30 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area of
AGADIR. The outlook for the 24 hours that follow the forecast
valid until 31/1200 UTC consists of north near gale or at times
gale.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlc with axis extending from
11N24W to 04N24W, moving W at 5-10 kt. Although the wave is in a
region of favorable wind shear, Meteosat enhanced imagery show
Saharan dry air and dust in the wave environment, which inhibit
deep convection at the time. Shallow moisture support isolated
showers from 06N-08N between 23W-26W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 11N40W to 02N41W, moving W at 15-20 kt. CIRA LPW imagery
shows a moderate moist environment east of the wave axis that
along with upper level diffluence support scattered moderate
convection from 05N-08N between 37W-41W. Saharan dry air is west
of the wave axis, which in part hinder convection in that region
of the wave environment.

A tropical wave is in the SE Caribbean with axis extending from
13N64W to inland Venezuela near 02N65W, moving W at 15-20 kt.
CIRA LPW imagery show a moderate moist environment from the
surface to 850 mb with patches of dry air. The dry air along with
unfavorable wind shear in the Caribbean hinder convection.

A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis extending from
15N75W to a 1011 mb low near 11N76W to inland Colombia near 04N75W,
moving W at 20 kt. Deep layer moisture, upper level divergence and
the EPAC monsoon trough that extends from Costa Rica to the low
associated with the wave support numerous heavy showers and
isolated tstms S of 13N between 76W-84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ begins near
05N17W to 05N23W...then resumes W of a tropical wave near 05N26W
and continues to 04N40W...then resumes W of a second tropical wave
near 05N44W to the coast of Guyana near 06N57W. Besides the
convection associated with the waves, scattered moderate
convection and isolated tstms are from 02N-10N E of 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface low pressure dominates the western half of the Gulf with a
1015 mb low off Texas near 28N95W with associated trough extending
NE-E to the Florida Panhandle which along upper diffluence support
scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms N of 28N between 87W
and 93W. In the SW basin, the latest scatterometer data show a
surface trough extending from 25N95W to the Bay of Campeche near
18N95W. Middle level divergence in this region of the basin along
with shallow moisture support scattered showers and isolated tstms
S of 26N W of 89W. Weak high pressure in the SE CONUS extends S
to the eastern Gulf, thus supporting light to gentle E-SE winds E
of 93W. Variable light winds are elsewhere. The low and the trough
are forecast to dissipate Wed morning, leaving return flow across
the basin through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are in the Caribbean being the most active the
one in the SW basin as it interacts with the EPAC monsoontrough
and supports heavy showers and tstms and possible gusty winds S
of 12N. See the tropical waves section for further details. The
remainder portion of the central Caribbean as well as the NW
basin enjoy fair weather being influenced by strong deep layer
wind shear as well as an upper ridge that promotes dry air
subsidence from aloft. There is an upper level low N of
Hispaniola while westerly flow dominates S of this island and
across the E Caribbean. This wind pattern aloft support diffluence
over the NE Caribbean, which support scattered heavy showers and
tstms in the Dominican Republic, the Mona Passage and Puerto Rico.

HISPANIOLA...

An upper level low N of Hispaniola and westerly flow S of the
island support diffluence aloft, which supports scattered heavy
showers and tstms across the Dominican Republic. This shower
activity is forecast to continue through Wed evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. Please refer
to the Tropical Waves section for more details. The remainder
basin is under the influence of a broad surface ridge that is
anchored by a 1026 mb high S of the Azores Islands near 33N27W. A
cold front is forecast to enter the NE corner of the SW N Atlc
waters by Wed morning then will move to central Atlc Thu morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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