[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281054
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
654 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis extending
from 10N29W to 01N30W, moving W at 10 kt. CIRA LPW imagery shows
a moderate moist environment near the ITCZ with dry air in the
Saharan Air Layer N of 10N. The 700 mb analysis shows a good wave
reflection. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-06N between
27W-32W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the remainder of
the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 11N47W to 01N47W, moving W at 10-15 kt. CIRA LPW imagery
shows a moderate moist environment near the ITCZ, with dry air in
the Saharan Air Layer N of 10N. The 700 mb analysis shows a good
wave reflection. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave
axis.

A tropical wave is in the west Atlantic with axis extending from
18N59W to 06N60W, moving W at 15 kt. This wave shows a well
defined inverted-V surface reflection on satellite imagery. CIRA
LPW imagery shows a moist environment. The 700 mb analysis shows a
good wave reflection. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the
wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the east Caribbean with axis extending
from 19N71W to 10N71W, moving W at 15 kt. Saharan dry air is
present in the wave's environment inhibiting convection. There is
a very pronounced 700 mb wave reflection.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough enters the tropical Atlantic near 11N15W and
continues to 06N19W. The ITCZ extends from 06N19W to 04N29W, then
resumes W of a tropical wave near 04N31W and continues to 04N46W.
The ITCZ again resumes W of another tropical wave near 03N49W and
continues to the coast of South America near 03N51W. Besides the
convection associated with the tropical waves, isolated moderate
convection is along the coast of West Africa from 02N-07N between
01W-15W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-04N between
35W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 mb high is located over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 27N83W.
5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are over the NE Gulf. 10-20 kt SE
surface winds are over the W Gulf. Scattered showers are over the
Bay of Campeche and S Mexico S of 21N. In the upper levels, a
ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 90W. Strong subsidence is
over most of the Gulf. Upper level moisture is,however, over S
Texas, and the Bay of Campeche. Expect more showers and convection
to advect into the Bay of Campeche from S Mexico, over the next
24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. See above. The monsoon
trough extends over Costa Rica and Panama producing scattered
moderate convection. Further N, Scattered moderate convection is
inland over, Honduras,and Guatemala. In the upper levels, a ridge
is over the W Caribbean. An upper level trough is over the E
Caribbean with strong subsidence. Expect over the next 24 hours
for the tropical wave to move W with showers. Also expect
continued convection over the SW Caribbean, and Central America.

...HISPANIOLA...

Water vapor imagery shows strong subsidence over the Island,
hindering convection. However, patches of low level moisture,
embedded in the trade wind flow, will produce isolated showers
over the next 24 hours.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front in the W Atlantic from 31N59W to the central Bahamas
near 24N74W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front N of
27N. A 1023 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near
29N45W. A cold front is over the E Atlantic from 31N21W to 28N30W.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. Three tropical
waves are over the tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the Tropical
Waves section for more details. Saharan dry and dust is noted
across much of the Atlantic Ocean N of 10N and E of 50W. Of note
in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered near
26N56W producing upper level diffluence with scattered showers
from 25N- 32N between 47W- 52W. Expect over the next 24 hours for
the W Atlantic front to drift E. Also expect the E Atlantic front
to move NE of the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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